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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

That should really help consolidate the energy and it makes it more likely to be tucked in further west. 

This feels like a system where the amounts will go up as we get closer. I think the odds of a whiff are shrinking.

With you. Think there's a strong cutoff, but those that get "in it" are going to realize some of the heftier totals. I like Monmouth County for a 12+ jackpot. 

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Just now, Snowlover11 said:

18z blah blah off run, but if your really looking anyone north of nyc is whiffing on the nam.

8AD0F96E-4EF6-4509-B1B7-71184ABC722C.jpeg

Anything beyond 48hrs is useless on the NAM. 

But yes a lesser solution is still on the table especially those north of the city.

One of the top analogs was the late Jan 2015 storm. However others like Dec 09, Jan 2016, Dec 2010 and even Jan 96 were in there too.

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That should really help consolidate the energy and it makes it more likely to be tucked in further west. 

This feels like a system where the amounts will go up as we get closer. I think the odds of a whiff are shrinking.

It looks to be sharpening up much more. Of course, this is only 1 model. We’ll see how future runs evolve.

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Potential prolonged NYC snowstorm.  

Accu-weather initially  broadcasting 6-10” for

the Big Apple.

If trends continue you guys will see a Winter Storm Watch posted followed by..

Sunny and 65 F down in Central Florida but with snow I’d rather be up there!
 

Good luck guys..

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Anything beyond 48hrs is useless on the NAM. 

But yes a lesser solution is still on the table especially those north of the city.

One of the top analogs was the late Jan 2015 storm. However others like Dec 09, Jan 2016, Dec 2010 and even Jan 96 were in there too.

The NAM evolution after 66 looked good.  That type of east inflow is likely to produce more QPF than the 18 run had 66-84

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10 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

Potential prolonged NYC snowstorm.  

Accu-weather initially  broadcasting 6-10” for

the Big Apple.

If trends continue you guys will see a Winter Storm Watch posted followed by..

Sunny and 65 F down in Central Florida but with snow I’d rather be up there!
 

Good luck guys..

that 6-10 for the city was predicted yesterday before today's model trends..

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Doesn’t actually look that much north overall but I think people have actually been saying the jackpot zone could be something like that depending on if banding sets up. 

2016 all over again. My sister and her fiancé live in Peekskill and they’re going to be my personal measuring stick for how intense the gradient ends up being between their house and mine in Sullivan. 

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NWS

“The Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Forecast (PWPF) graphics
have been updated through 72 hours, which is 00z (7pm) Monday
evening. The current forecast has advisory level snow across the
interior (avg of 3 inches) with near warning level (avg of 6
inches) near the coast. Additional snow is possible Monday night
into Tuesday, but amounts are much less certain. There may also
be a sharp cut off in amounts somewhere across the region,
which at this time looks to be somewhere across the interior. If
the low tracks a bit closer to the coast, then the northward
extent will move further inland and amounts there will be
increased. This could also introduce potential of mixing with
rain on eastern Long Island. A track further south and east
would mean less snow across the board. These details will be
hopefully fine tuned through the weekend. Our official forecast
keeps the precipitation snow with the surface low and mid level
low centers all passing south of the region. These are favorable
tracks to keep a more northerly flow holding any warming off
the ocean down until precip rates decrease or if there is any
dry slot. Again this looks like a concern for only portions of
Long Island at this time.

Looking at probabilities from the GEFS and ECMWF EPS, the
probability of seeing 6 inches or more has increased for the
southern portion of the area in the last 24 hours. The winter
storm has the potential to produce a foot of snow somewhere in
the CWA. This will all be dependent on mesoscale banding and the
track of the system. Strong winds will also be possible,
especially across the southern portion of the region. Gusts 35
to 45 mph cannot be ruled out at some point Monday into Monday
night.”

 

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  • wdrag changed the title to Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.
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