Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[weathermedic]

Any time frame on start and end times for NYC?

[nightknights]

On 12/15/2020 at 1:12 AM, HeadInTheClouds said:

All the models ticked farther N and W at 00z except the GooFuS. 

50 mile jog North would be sweet.  The jackpot will not be current location

[NJwx85]

Some encouraging trends with the 12z suite but it's questionable as to how far back the pendulum can swing in this setup.

[jm1220]

Binghamton over to N NH in the 12/17 storm was supposed to get a few inches maybe and in some cases weren’t even under watches but ended up buried over 30”. Can’t expect that again but the northern edge isn’t a bad place to be in storms like these. There’s very often a big mid level lift band there with very high ratios. 

[MJO812]

Winter storm Orlena

[ILoveWinter]

The stall potential for this makes things quite interesting, it's been a while since we've had one of those to track!

[forkyfork]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Winter storm Orlena

no

[ARyan]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter storm Orlena

Which of course is Latin for "Out to Sea."

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Binghamton over to N NH in the 12/17 storm was supposed to get a few inches maybe and in some cases weren’t even under watches but ended up buried over 30”. Can’t expect that again but the northern edge isn’t a bad place to be in storms like these. There’s very often a big mid level lift band there with very high ratios. 

True but it wasn’t a total suprise it was becoming apparent that zone woul jackpot by about 30 hours out 

[friedmators]

Still a fair amount of spread here.

[mikem81]

Just now, friedmators said:

Still a fair amount of spread here.

Gotta love the snow bird members down near FLA

[MJO812]

Sref got wetter

[Sn0waddict]

The plumes are really nice. 10 inch avg at KBDR. Probably still snowing too.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

The plumes are really nice. 10 inch avg at KBDR. Probably still snowing too.

Still a little early for SREF. Tomorrow would be better to use those I would think 

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Still a little early for SREF. Tomorrow would be better to use those I would think 

Just looking for trends wherever I can find them lol

[SnowGoose69]

The confluence early in the run was actually worse near New England on the Euro but it exited faster and the system slowed or semi stalled not to mention it occluded a bit later.  I still think we could just as easily see this tick south again as it could north 

[coastalplainsnowman]

41 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Still a fair amount of spread here.

layman's question - is there any sort of measurement which depicts the variance among the members, in which a smaller number would indicate better agreement?

[BxEngine]

3 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

layman's question - is there any sort of measurement which depicts the variance among the members, in which a smaller number would indicate better agreement?

A ruler and a big monitor? 

[HVSnowLover]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The confluence early in the run was actually worse near New England on the Euro but it exited faster and the system slowed or semi stalled not to mention it occluded a bit later.  I still think we could just as easily see this tick south again as it could north 

Of course 

[nightknights]

58 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

The stall potential for this makes things quite interesting, it's been a while since we've had one of those to track!

Had a plowing business back in 1996 that 30 inch storm just would not leave. Totals kept piling up made a lot of money that year and sold my truck right after.  Blood money.   I got stuck in more 6ft snow drifts than you could imagine

 

[Blizzardo]

Just now, nightknights said:

Had a plowing business back in 1996 that 30 inch storm just would not leave. Totals kept piling up made a lot of money that year and sold my truck right after.  Blood money.   I got stuck in more 6ft snow drifts than you could imagine

 

I was in it. 63 hours straight.  Pulled into a driveway with a 15 foot drift. I'll never forget.

[TheManWithNoFace]

3 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

I was in it. 63 hours straight.  Pulled into a driveway with a 15 foot drift. I'll never forget.

I'm jelly

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

Any time frame on start and end times for NYC?

Sunday afternoon into Tuesday evening

[TheManWithNoFace]

We've had a lot of discussion, rightly so, on the western Atlantic and it's potential to squash things. I haven't seen the PAC mentioned as much which is trending more favorably, with better wave spacing all the way into the north central Pacific resulting in improved ridging over the western US. 

[Rtd208]

Winter Storm Watch issued here for accumulations of over 7"

[hudsonvalley21]

35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The confluence early in the run was actually worse near New England on the Euro but it exited faster and the system slowed or semi stalled not to mention it occluded a bit later.  I still think we could just as easily see this tick south again as it could north 

I believe that the confluence is a major player with this event. A few more runs with ticks one way or another like you mentioned. We might not be honed in till the 00z runs Sunday.

[MJO812]

Winter storm watches flying out already by Mt Holly

[Eduardo]

6 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

We've had a lot of discussion, rightly so, on the western Atlantic and it's potential to squash things. I haven't seen the PAC mentioned as much which is trending more favorably, with better wave spacing all the way into the north central Pacific resulting in improved ridging over the western US. 

 

Great post!  IIRC, it was a slightly more amped PNA that nudged the December 2009 storm far enough north for us to partake.  Keep an eye on it!

[hudsonvalley21]

15 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

We've had a lot of discussion, rightly so, on the western Atlantic and it's potential to squash things. I haven't seen the PAC mentioned as much which is trending more favorably, with better wave spacing all the way into the north central Pacific resulting in improved ridging over the western US. 

Interesting, wondering if any meteorologists can elaborate or comment on this?

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Interesting, wondering if any meteorologists can elaborate or comment on this?

That should really help consolidate the energy and it makes it more likely to be tucked in further west. 

This feels like a system where the amounts will go up as we get closer. I think the odds of a whiff are shrinking.