Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

This is true. I think ratios will be higher than 10:1 N and W. Climatology is 12:1 where I am in MHV and could be higher. 

We should be between 10-12:1 on this one and maybe higher at night. But still holding concern about that cutoff. Reasonable early guess for us is probably 5-8 and that can swing up or down very easily. It’s been a few years since we completely missed a storm and here’s hoping that streak doesn’t finally end here.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

We should be between 10-12:1 on this one and maybe higher at night. But still holding concern about that cutoff. Reasonable early guess for us is probably 5-8 and that can swing up or down very easily. It’s been a few years since we completely missed a storm.

Why would it be only 10:1? I'm thinking at least 12:1. 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Why would it be only 10:1? I'm thinking at least 12:1. 

Right now my P&C has temperatures getting close to 30-31 at the height of the storm so I’d naturally think closer to 10:1 for portions of the storm. I’m most likely wrong in my methodology for thinking so, mind you 

[wdrag]

Is i not the trend of GFS to virtually always be too far south on these ne storms at days 3 and beyond?  If it doesn't close off, then it's close now, but if it closes off, then I expect a northward drift to the GFS solutions. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

This looks like one of the slowest moving winter storm ULs that we have seen in a while. Going to be really nice for whoever ends up in the jackpot zone. Perfect timing right after the strongest Arctic outbreak of the season so far.

 

what would you compare this to, Chris?  Feb 1920, Feb 1961, Dec 1992, late Feb 2010, or Jan 2016?

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

We should be between 10-12:1 on this one and maybe higher at night. But still holding concern about that cutoff. Reasonable early guess for us is probably 5-8 and that can swing up or down very easily. It’s been a few years since we completely missed a storm and here’s hoping that streak doesn’t finally end here.

in addition to temps, high winds will keep ratios lower

[weatherpruf]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's still a pretty good run for NYC proper but a sharp cutoff for NW areas.

This is days away. I've learned not to assume anything til almost the day of, and even then it doesn't always unfold the way it is expected to. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

what would you compare this to, Chris?  Feb 1920, Feb 1961, Dec 1992, late Feb 2010, or Jan 2016?

It really is. It's going to be torture watching the slow northward progression of precip up to 84. 

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Couple of notes: I think there is a national weather models comms problem. GGEM/GFSV16 seem delayed. RGEM is in through 00z/Monday. Could b e a lonnnng slow wait for snow to arrive... wouldn't rush it.  Go with I80 Monday morning at the latest, but possibly not I90 til Monday evening? LONNNG ways to go. 

Yeah, the CMC output is still stuck at 24 hrs on Pivotal/TT, but I've seen people saying the CMC was "great."  Can anyone share a CMC snowfall map?  Thanks.  

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It seems like the UKMET is one of the more erratic models from run to run with surface low positions that affect us. The only time that I can remember it scoring a coup over the other models was with the 2-5-16 snowstorm that delivered around 10” on parts of Long Island. 

You're right... I used to pay more attention to this model and it's global stat ranking but over the last year that I've tried to use this...much more miss than hit.  just another member of the 12z cycle, serving as downside reminder for those who want snow near 40N.  Would like to see UK ensemble but have no source. 

[hudsonvalley21]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Well we definitely have a trend on a good sized event. A lot of zig zags in the track and position over the next few days. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks more like a spring cutoff low but with winter cold.

hmm March 2018?  I was thinking of that too.....which also brings in March 1956.  Wasn't that a la nina storm also?

 

[HVSnowLover]

15 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Right now my P&C has temperatures getting close to 30-31 at the height of the storm so I’d naturally think closer to 10:1 for portions of the storm. I’m most likely wrong in my methodology for thinking so, mind you 

The models are most likely wrong with how far inland they are pushing the 32 surface line but I could be wrong but I’d say it ends colder at the surface than modeled with strong dynamics and the low to the SE

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It seems like the UKMET is one of the more erratic models from run to run with surface low positions that affect us. The only time that I can remember it scoring a coup over the other models was with the 2-5-16 snowstorm that delivered around 10” on parts of Long Island. 

was that the storm that caused the tragic crane accident in Manhattan?

 

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

You're right... I used to pay more attention to this model and it's global stat ranking but over the last year that I've tried to use this...much more miss than hit.  just another member of the 12z cycle, serving as downside reminder for those who want snow near 40N.  Would like to see UK ensemble but have no source. 

Walt - I've asked this question numerous times over the years and never really gotten a good response, but I don't recall asking you, so here goes.  Does there exist somewhere data on accuracy scores of the various models for snowstorms and especially NE snowstorms (and NYC metro would be even better, lol)?  We always hear that the verification scores (which are based on general 500mbar data verification, from what I recall) show the Euro best, then the UK, then the CMC/GFS lagging those two, but I think many people would love to know which models are best for snowstorms at various timepoints before the storm (5 days, 3 days, 1 day, etc.).  Any help here or is it just "rules of thumb" based on anecdotes and/or memory of mets who've been around a long time?  If not, maybe it's time for someone to do this as a PhD dissertation and then use it to coauthor the 3rd edition of the Kocin-Uccinelli book on NE snowstorms.  Thanks!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

Depends for where. Might be some legit concern about mixing issues Jersey coast, south shore, eastern LI (but those areas often mix) 

to be honest a dry slot is better, like with the December storm, before it could mix the dry slot came in.

 

[NJsnow89]

Eps just came in south. Hopefully not a trend to the ukie. 

[North and West]

45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

another day another solution-still 3-4 days away so can't really lock anything in right now....

STOP THE COUNT

[North and West]

26 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

This is days away. I've learned not to assume anything til almost the day of, and even then it doesn't always unfold the way it is expected to. 

re: Binghamton, December 2020

[snywx]

26 minutes ago, North and West said:

re: Binghamton, December 2020

I don’t think many up there thought 30-40” was on the table 12hr prior 

[wdrag]

Hi everyone,

Despite the stark southward shift-shrift of the 12z/28 EPS, the 12z/28 GFSv16 op (seen previously I think) and GGEM op continue on course with WPC's 16z qpf...if not heavier.

Attached the 12z/28 EPS (last) and the 12Z GGEM panels and 240 hour snowfall in MM.  25MM=1" (reds).  BIG but only an op. Its' mostly rain or ice for 2/5ish so that is not a snowfall contributor.  The good news...GGEM still on board. Whether that's right or wrong???????

What this all tells me... wait on commitment north-south or in between.  My gut tells me more northwest but that's not science. It could be as one poster ID  

wish casting.  

Need to wait it out. There is lots of interactive sensitivity that will take a few more cycles to convince us one way or the other. 

 

[Nibor]

29 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Eps just came in south. Hopefully not a trend to the ukie. 

 

I think it's still a pretty good look.

[HVSnowLover]

9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi everyone,

Despite the stark southward shift-shrift of the 12z/28 EPS, the 12z/28 GFSv16 op (seen previously I think) and GGEM op continue on course with WPC's 16z qpf...if not heavier.

Attached the 12z/28 EPS (last) and the 12Z GGEM panels and 240 hour snowfall in MM.  25MM=1" (reds).  BIG but only an op. Its' mostly rain or ice for 2/5ish so that is not a snowfall contributor.  The good news...GGEM still on board. Whether that's right or wrong???????

What this all tells me... wait on commitment north-south or in between.  My gut tells me more northwest but that's not science. It could be as one poster ID  

wish casting.  

Need to wait it out. There is lots of interactive sensitivity that will take a few more cycles to convince us one way or the other. 

 

We’ve definitely been burned by the late nw trend so while I’m leaning jackpot near  I95 I’m not commiting that we are done with trends 

[wdrag]

46 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Walt - I've asked this question numerous times over the years and never really gotten a good response, but I don't recall asking you, so here goes.  Does there exist somewhere data on accuracy scores of the various models for snowstorms and especially NE snowstorms (and NYC metro would be even better, lol)?  We always hear that the verification scores (which are based on general 500mbar data verification, from what I recall) show the Euro best, then the UK, then the CMC/GFS lagging those two, but I think many people would love to know which models are best for snowstorms at various timepoints before the storm (5 days, 3 days, 1 day, etc.).  Any help here or is it just "rules of thumb" based on anecdotes and/or memory of mets who've been around a long time?  If not, maybe it's time for someone to do this as a PhD dissertation and then use it to coauthor the 3rd edition of the Kocin-Uccinelli book on NE snowstorms.  Thanks!

WPC keeps stats as does NHC, in season...  I don't know the answer.  Think the general consensus is EC/EPS best and tends to be conservative on qpf.

GFS clearly a more convective model than the EC and a high bias on qpf, tho suspect if it flags big... need to take an extra look. Sometimes it's fantastic...many others... secondary to other models.

GGEM- I like it. Many do not. I do know this winter tells the truth on all these threads. IF the GGEM doesn't have it big, forget it! Time after time. Folks can look back.  Doesn't mean that the GGEM is more accurate areally & placement but does mean it garners, at least my respect. 

Models evolve and so results may not be valid 2 years from now.  If models were static as back in the 60s/70s... then your proposal would be more useful. There may be others that can provide more info... i do agree, 500MB does not do it for me.  I don;'t get a chance to view many WPC qpf/extended discussions but they may tuck some info in there.  Was good that someone posted the EFP discussion from WPC earlier this morning. Thank you. 

[CIK62]

STILL DOUBLE DIGITS FOR NYC, BUT NOTE 0.50" LE FALLS WITH A VERY MARGINAL T STRUCTURE AT THE SURFACE.     THAT COULD CUT OUT 6",  RIGHT OFF THE BAT.      

THEN EVERYTHING WASHES AWAY ANYWAY BY THE 6TH?.         THE -20F TO -25F IN SAY CHICAGO AND DUBUQUE ON THE 7TH/8TH BECOMES OUR +10 FOR ONE DAY NEAR THE 10TH. 

Anyone know what happened to the CMC.       Output stuck at 24 hours on Pivotal, Tropical Tidbits.

[wdrag]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

We’ve definitely been burned by the late nw trend so while I’m leaning jackpot near  I95 I’m not commiting that we are done with trends 

Yes... 26th my burn.  

 

Love the interest by everyone and keeping everyone up to speed.  Definitely of interest.  

[wdrag]

Just now, CIK62 said:

STILL DOUBLE DIGITS FOR NYC, BUT NOTE 0.50" LE FALLS WITH A VERY MARGINAL T STRUCTURE AT THE SURFACE.     THAT COULD CUT OUT 6",  RIGHT OFF THE BAT.      

THEN EVERYTHING WASHES AWAY ANYWAY BY THE 6TH?.         THE -20F TO -25F IN SAY CHICAGO AND DUBUQUE ON THE 7TH/8TH BECOMES OUR +10 FOR ONE DAY NEAR THE 10TH. 

Anyone know what happened to the CMC.       Output stuck at 24 hours on Pivotal, Tropical Tidbits.

Did you see my just 10 min ago post. It's posted..rudimentary.   Sometimes, if the model misses a vendor call window, it may not get caught up til later.   Think there have been some internet problems on the east coast late this morning. No factual info. 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Yes... 26th my burn.  

 

Love the interest by everyone and keeping everyone up to speed.  Definitely of interest.  

it's better to have a slight southward shift at this range

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

We’ve definitely been burned by the late nw trend so while I’m leaning jackpot near  I95 I’m not commiting that we are done with trends 

The "dual-max" with QPF min in the middle may be a concern. The initial energy/overrunning max out SW of us and then eastern New England gets pummeled with the easterly flow around the low. Still way too far out to bank on anything but it's a look I've been noticing today. Regardless I don't see this getting squashed way south of here. A 12/17-like outcome where we near the shore worry about the dryslot and warm air is significantly more likely IMO (maybe not the most likely, that's vs. too suppressed)

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

We’ve definitely been burned by the late nw trend so while I’m leaning jackpot near  I95 I’m not commiting that we are done with trends 

yeah this is exactly why a slight southward trend is better right now.  Get it about 100 miles southeast of NYC.