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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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GEFS QPF bumped up this run. Over 1" for the entire area and 1.5+ for coastal NJ, NYC, and part of LI.  That's pretty big for ensembles at this stage, although it will probably tick down next time the OP does. For now it's nice to see bigger QPF numbers. But the big ticket is the long duration. None of the 6-hr panels have huge QPF, but it steadily adds up over 1.5 days. Of course with a stacking and stalling system there are always concerns with banding far NW, dryslots, mixing and a possible SLP slide east.

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612AM/28 headline update: added 6+" to the headline, best chance nw of I95.  By 830A will add the multiple cycles of EPS supporting guidance. Overnight WPC D4-6 guidance still less than ideal but does not include much if any of the 00z/28 ensembles which are heavier than what is added here (hopefully correctly trended model guidance?).  There is a pretty good chance of eventual rain involvement on or just se of I95, but the front end of this Nor'easter should produce snowfall for the entire area before a possible mess. Not a beast but uncertain potential for a major snowstorm (1 foot+) for part of the forum, probably closer to the I84 corridor or even north of there. Let's enjoy the ride there and appreciate whatever we get-this sets my rain concerns about the I95 corridor southeastward. Max gusts still seem near 50 MPH a part of LI and maybe the NJ coast. There is potential for minor coastal flooding with the Feb 1 high tide cycle-fortunately not astronomically high tides. Added graphics are WPC D4,5 3"+snow graphics, there total qpf forecast (seems a little low but has to be considered), the EPS base 10-1 snowfall (multiple successive cycles almost identical) and the GEFS prob for >6" of snowfall which focused my concern for rain/sleet I95 sewd.

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 6.05.32 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 5.46.53 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 5.42.23 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 5.38.20 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 5.29.49 AM.png

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

 

612AM/28 headline update: added 6+" to the headline, best chance nw of I95.  By 830A will add the multiple cycles of EPS supporting guidance. Overnight WPC D4-6 guidance still less than ideal but does not include much if any of the 00z/28 ensembles which are heavier than what is added here (hopefully correctly trended model guidance?).  There is a pretty good chance of eventual rain involvement on or just se of I95, but the front end of this Nor'easter should produce snowfall for the entire area before a possible mess. Not a beast but uncertain potential for a major snowstorm (1 foot+) for part of the forum, probably closer to the I84 corridor or even north of there. Let's enjoy the ride there and appreciate whatever we get-this sets my rain concerns about the I95 corridor southeastward. Max gusts still seem near 50 MPH a part of LI and maybe the NJ coast. There is potential for minor coastal flooding with the Feb 1 high tide cycle-fortunately not astronomically high tides. Added graphics are WPC D4,5 3"+snow graphics, there total qpf forecast (seems a little low but has to be considered), the EPS base 10-1 snowfall (multiple successive cycles almost identical) and the GEFS prob for >6" of snowfall which focused my concern for rain/sleet I95 sewd.

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 6.05.32 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 5.46.53 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 5.42.23 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 5.38.20 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 5.29.49 AM.png

My early guess would be jackpot zone is somewhere between I95 and I84 as this is where the combination of cold enough and best dynamics may take place but it’s also very much subject to change 

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  • wdrag changed the title to Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.
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