Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[hazwoper]

4 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Seems like a BM track, what's causing the mix?

Lack of a fresh High supplying cold air or not strong enough of a storm to generate its own? Something else?

high SST anomalies 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Seems like a BM track, what's causing the mix?

Lack of a fresh High supplying cold air or not strong enough of a storm to generate its own? Something else?

Probably because on the EURO the LP was actually slightly inland from the coast sitting there too long pumping in too much ocean air

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Probably because on the EURO the LP was actually slightly inland from the coast sitting there too long pumping in too much ocean air

That’s a good track for nyc generally and nice positioned high. Not worried about temps too much at this point but we’ll see how this evolves 

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

a real battle going on here as EURO up to this point hugging the coast causing a mix up here then moving northeast on this map

 

 

That pink is heavy snow not sleet. 

[Allsnow]

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

That pink is heavy snow not sleet. 

Hmm I think there must be mixing as the snow maps count sleet as snow. If it was snow at those rates the totals would be way higher. Either way it’s one run 5-6 days out 

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

That low placement is not hugging the coast but not sure if there are other features creating the warmth 

The main low is farther west closer to coast. That is what caused warming along the coast. That 993 low may be low developing on occlusion. 

[CIK62]

A great 12Z GFS run      16" in 48 hours for NYC......by the Cobb Method, not shown.

[coastalplainsnowman]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not sweating on the thermals.

pun intended?

[MJO812]

Euro is a day slower than the gfs

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

No it’s not, the snow maps count sleet as snow. If it was snow at those rates the totals would be way higher. Either way it’s one run 5-6 days out 

No. 

[forkyfork]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The south based block was a little stronger today east of Cape Cod on the Euro than yesterday. So the UL was further back to the west. This allows the surface low to tuck in more for a warmer solution near the coast.

it's slower to eject the s/w

[NJwx85]

Everyone is in for several hours of overrunning on Sunday night and Monday morning before any hint of a warm layer. If you live on the immediate coast, you're going to have mixing issues. It shouldn't be surprising, it's the case with almost every storm.

[Allsnow]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Everyone is in for several hours of overrunning on Sunday night and Monday morning before any hint of a warm layer. If you live on the immediate coast, you're going to have mixing issues. It shouldn't be surprising, it's the case with almost every storm.

This. 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Everyone is in for several hours of overrunning on Sunday night and Monday morning before any hint of a warm layer. If you live on the immediate coast, you're going to have mixing issues. It shouldn't be surprising, it's the case with almost every storm.

This isn't mixing issues lol. This Is 2" of snow in 24 hrs lol. Its basically all rain 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Everyone is in for several hours of overrunning on Sunday night and Monday morning before any hint of a warm layer. If you live on the immediate coast, you're going to have mixing issues. It shouldn't be surprising, it's the case with almost every storm.

If the overrunning makes it to our latitude

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Everyone is in for several hours of overrunning on Sunday night and Monday morning before any hint of a warm layer. If you live on the immediate coast, you're going to have mixing issues. It shouldn't be surprising, it's the case with almost every storm.

Depends on the track

[HVSnowLover]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No. 

Its 35 at NYC on that run at the height of the storm and even warmer on LI. There are going to mixing issues on that run hence the lower totals near the coast but again it's only one run.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Its 35 at NYC on that run at the height of the storm and even warmer on LI. There are going to mixing issues on that run hence the lower totals near the coast but again it's only one run.

The above layers are plenty cold. LI has dry slot issues which keeps their totals lower. 
 

Eps mean southeast of the op. Looks great

[Allsnow]

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Everyone is in for several hours of overrunning on Sunday night and Monday morning before any hint of a warm layer. If you live on the immediate coast, you're going to have mixing issues. It shouldn't be surprising, it's the case with almost every storm.

It’s way too soon to say there will or won’t be anything. And there have been plenty of big storms where I lived right near the beach that were all snow, some fairly recently like in 17-18. 

[li_wx88]

Now stay right there

[wdrag]

KU top 10?  I'm not thinking this, nor a beast but a snowstorm seems ahead for parts of I95 corridor and probably inland.  Some signs of development a little too late. GEFS/GEPS have a good snow event but a little concerned about GEPS/GEFS/NAEFS offering only a general 0.4-0.8 qpf.  Could be too low and undoubtedly there has to be accentuated snowfall on the inside edge of the comma head, wherever that may be nnw of the closed low.  Adding a bunch of guidance: WPC stat prob of 3+" in subsequent days. Back tomorrow morn.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

If the overrunning makes it to our latitude

Yeah exactly.  I’m not sure it does.  I think the we might mostly see the coastal impacts 

[uncle W]

a 6-8" event would be great after weeks of futility...

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

a 6-8" event would be great after weeks of futility...

it's been bad.  Even yesterday's 1 incher was exciting here.   Only the 3rd time it's snowed all winter.

[sussexcountyobs]

FWIW Ijust saw Lee Goldberg on tv. He said theres possibility of a decent snow, but right now he's expecting just on and off snow and rain showers for Monday.

[gravitylover]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's been bad.  Even yesterday's 1 incher was exciting here.   Only the 3rd time it's snowed all winter.

I can say that it snowed 5 days in a row  It didn't amount to squat but it snowed for a little while each day, the total was an almost measurable coating one morning.

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

FWIW Ijust saw Lee Goldberg on tv. He said theres possibility of a decent snow, but right now he's expecting just on and off snow and rain showers for Monday.

It's stuff like this that makes me glad I haven't watched a local TV weather cast in 15 yrs

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

It's stuff like this that makes me glad I haven't watched a local TV weather cast in 15 yrs

I was getting a coffee in Dunkin Donuts,  and it was on their TV. LOL