February 2021

[FPizz]

Cloudy with drizzle/very light rain, 40

[bluewave]

Fairly tame warm up by recent late winter standards. Temperatures should rise to around 50° Wednesday. Maybe a few degrees warmer Saturday. So we are on track for our first January and February without any 60 degree days since 2014 and 2015. If both Newark and NYC remain below 55°, then it would be the first time since 2003. Newark may try to reach the top 10 for longest streak under 55° days. Newark is currently at 12th longest with 60 days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 55 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	111	1963-03-23
2	87	1941-03-22
3	84	2003-03-14
4	83	1956-02-24
5	78	1969-03-16
6	77	1977-02-22
7	76	1968-03-07
-	76	1948-02-17
8	69	1971-02-11
9	65	2015-03-10
10	63	2011-02-13
-	63	1940-02-11
11	60	2004-02-27
-	60	2021-02-23

[the_other_guy]

Much warmer on drive from Westchester to city.

39F->46F in a few miles.

Very unusual during the daylight hours

[CIK62]

An unlikely to verify 18Z GFS.             Remember what happen to the -6 progged for Feb. 15th. around the 8th of the month.           This was a snow less run.

The CMC does have 7" around March 02.        EURO is zippo.

[donsutherland1]

Today, an upper air disturbance brought a period of light rain and snow to parts of the Northeast. Seasonal snowfall amounts to date include:

Albany: 52.9" (8.1" above normal)
Allentown: 57.3" (31.9" above normal) ***8th highest***
Baltimore: 10.4" (6.6" below normal)
Binghamton: 97.1" (36.3" above normal) ***19th highest***
Boston: 38.4" (6.2" above normal)
Bridgeport: 43.8" (23.6" above normal)
Buffalo: 70.2" (4.6" below normal)
Burlington: 57.7" (0.3" below normal)
Caribou: 75.8" (1.5" below normal)
Harrisburg: 36.0" (12.5" above normal)
Islip: 33.5" (15.0" above normal)
New York City: 38.6" (18.7" above normal)
Newark: 45.7" (24.1" above normal) ***14th highest***
Philadelphia: 23.9" (6.0" above normal)
Portland: 40.8" (3.4" below normal)
Providence: 33.5" (7.1" above normal)
Washington, DC: 5.4" (7.9" below normal)

Milder air continues to move into the region. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 50° on tomorrow before somewhat cooler air returns.

Late this week through the coming weekend, temperatures will likely rise to much above normal levels in the southeastern United States.

Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that, as ensemble support for a prolonged positive AO regime has increased. There could be some short-lived shots of somewhat cooler air.

During the 1991-2020 base period, the March 1-10 temperature has averaged 39.7° in New York City and 40.9° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 10% of days for both cities. During cases when the AO was +1.000 or above and the PNA was negative, the state of the SOI often made the difference between a colder/snowier or warmer/less snowy outcome. When the SOI was negative, the mean temperature in New York City was 39.5° and it was 39.6° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 20% of days in New York City and 17% of days in Philadelphia (well above the climatological frequency). When the SOI was positive, the mean temperature in New York City was 41.6° and it was 42.3° in Philadelphia. In such cases, measurable snow was observed on 13% of days in both cities. In sum, if this data holds up, even as a milder regime settles in, there will be some chance of a measurable snow event during the first 10 days of March in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Interior sections would likely be favored for measurable snow, as would central and upstate New York and New England.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March.

The SOI was +7.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.415 today. That was the highest AO value since November 26, 2020 when the AO was +2.181.

On February 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.817 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.083.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.3° (2.0° below normal).

 

[doncat]

Still 40° at this hour...not alot of snow melt with the icy top layer... you can see the street lights shining on the snow.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Fairly tame warm up by recent late winter standards. Temperatures should rise to around 50° Wednesday. Maybe a few degrees warmer Saturday. So we are on track for our first January and February without any 60 degree days since 2014 and 2015. If both Newark and NYC remain below 55°, then it would be the first time since 2003. Newark may try to reach the top 10 for longest streak under 55° days. Newark is currently at 12th longest with 60 days.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 55 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	111	1963-03-23
2	87	1941-03-22
3	84	2003-03-14
4	83	1956-02-24
5	78	1969-03-16
6	77	1977-02-22
7	76	1968-03-07
-	76	1948-02-17
8	69	1971-02-11
9	65	2015-03-10
10	63	2011-02-13
-	63	1940-02-11
11	60	2004-02-27
-	60	2021-02-23

JFK has yet to reach 50 correct?  And they may not reach it even with this warm up.

 

[TriPol]

Who's been messing up everything? It's the +PNA all along!

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of February are averaging 40degs.(34/46), or +3.0.

Month to date is 32.1[-2.6].      February should end at 33.5[-1.8].

All models are snow less throughout their runs.

39*(70%RH) here at 6am.      Was 38*  just before 6am.        40* at 7am.      Back to 39* at 8am.       42* at 9am.      47* by 11am.     48* by 1pm.

[weatherpruf]

48 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The last 5 days of February are averaging 40degs.(34/46), or +3.0.

Month to date is 32.1[-2.6].      February should end at 33.5[-1.8].

All models are snow less throughout their runs.

39*(70%RH) here at 6am.    

Probably done with major snow; pattern the last decade has been a few weeks of snow then done. Never know with March, but the window for big snows for my area is closing. Can always gets an early April event, but by then whatever falls won't last more than a day. Let's hope for a decent spring, haven't seen one of those in years.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

A springlike day is on tap. Today will be partly sunny and noticeably milder. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 50°

Newark: 51°

Philadelphia: 54°

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny but somewhat cooler. Most of the remainder of February will likely see temperatures average somewhat above normal.

[bluewave]

It looks like NYC finally had a 40° low temperature today. This was the first time since December 24th. It’s also the first time going over 60 days since 2015.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KNYC&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature < 40 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 2010-01-01 to 2021-02-23
1	63	2015-03-08
2	61	2021-02-23
3	56	2013-03-10
4	46	2011-02-16
5	41	2010-03-07
6	38	2014-02-21
7	29	2019-02-03
8	27	2018-03-28
9	26	2019-03-13
10	23	2017-02-18

[Will - Rutgers]

snowpack annihilation in progress.  very nice day outside.

[Brian5671]

my davis says 52, probably a bit high but it's likely around 50

[bluewave]

Impressive thaw pattern across the US.

[winterwx21]

56 degrees here right now!

[SnoSki14]

Temps will always overperform on a sw wind.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like NYC finally had a 40° low temperature today. This was the first time since December 24th. It’s also the first time going over 60 days since 2015.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KNYC&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature < 40 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 2010-01-01 to 2021-02-23
1	63	2015-03-08
2	61	2021-02-23
3	56	2013-03-10
4	46	2011-02-16
5	41	2010-03-07
6	38	2014-02-21
7	29	2019-02-03
8	27	2018-03-28
9	26	2019-03-13
10	23	2017-02-18

The streak barely survived with a low of 39°.

[SACRUS]

Snowpack on the 'real time' visible satellite 

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

 

[Rtd208]

Nice day today.

Current temp 55

[Dark Star]

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Temps will always overperform on a sw wind.

From the desert...

[the_other_guy]

54F

Beautiful day.

Good run...But a sad, abrupt end to it all.  

 

[lee59]

That wind off the water here is strong. Turning a pleasant evening temperature wise into an uncomfortable one. 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, much of the region basked in the balmy warmth of an early spring preview. Select high temperatures included:

Allentown: 51°
Atlantic City: 56°
Baltimore: 63°
Binghamton: 48°
Bridgeport: 50°
Harrisburg: 57°
Islip: 50°
New York City-JFK: 49°
New York City-LGA: 53°
New York City-NYC: 54°
Newark: 53°
Philadelphia: 56°
Poughkeepsie: 52°
Scranton: 54°
Sterling, VA: 66°
Washington, DC: 60°
Wilmington, DE: 56°

Somewhat cooler air will return to the region for tomorrow and Friday.

Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March and possibly beyond that, as ensemble support for a prolonged positive AO regime has increased further. There could be some short-lived shots of cooler air.

The MJO is forecast to reside predominantly in Phases 5-7 during the first 10 days of March in combination with an AO of generally +1.000 or above. During the 1991-2020 period, such a combination yielded temperatures that averaged 2.9° above normal in New York City and 1.7° above normal in Philadelphia. Broader statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is consistent with those broader statistical temperature anomalies.

During the 1991-2020 base period, the March 1-10 temperature has averaged 39.7° in New York City and 40.9° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 10% of days for both cities. During cases when the AO was +1.000 or above and the PNA was negative, the state of the SOI often made the difference between a colder/snowier or warmer/less snowy outcome. When the SOI was negative, the mean temperature in New York City was 39.5° and it was 39.6° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 20% of days in New York City and 17% of days in Philadelphia (well above the climatological frequency). When the SOI was positive, the mean temperature in New York City was 41.6° and it was 42.3° in Philadelphia. In such cases, measurable snow was observed on 13% of days in both cities. In sum, if this data holds up, even as a milder regime settles in, there could be some chance of a measurable snow event during the first 10 days of March in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Interior sections would likely be favored for measurable snow, as would central and upstate New York and New England.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March.

The SOI was -3.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.628 today. That is the AO's highest value since the AO was +2.181 on November 26, 2020.

On February 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.872 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.819.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of March.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.6° (1.7° below normal).

 

[lee59]

It was beautiful here early this afternoon. Then the wind started  howling. This is what long Island gets in spring, strong southerly winds off the ocean to turn beautiful spring days into a gale force chill.

[sferic]

4 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

54F

Beautiful day.

Good run...But a sad, abrupt end to it all.  

 

It's not over it took a vacation for a few weeks, we'll have more WSW's count on it

[Will - Rutgers]

10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Temps will always overperform on a sw wind.

this is one of those statements i don't really have any evidence for but just *feel* is correct

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The streak barely survived with a low of 39°.

so a good chance we reach number 1 on this streak?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

this is one of those statements i don't really have any evidence for but just *feel* is correct

here it's on a W or NW wind in the summer

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, lee59 said:

It was beautiful here early this afternoon. Then the wind started  howling. This is what long Island gets in spring, strong southerly winds off the ocean to turn beautiful spring days into a gale force chill.

if we tried to build a wind proof structure to keep it out, how high would the wind barrier have to be?

at some point, there'd be downsloping at the other end of the barrier and the wind would heat up so thats a plus/plus