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February 2021


snowman19
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The MOS did very well with the high temperatures today. The raw 2m Ts really struggle on days like this. Too bad we don’t have ECMWF MOS freely available.

 

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    2/06/2021  0000 UTC                      
 DT /FEB   6            /FEB   7                /FEB   8          /  
 HR   06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 
 X/N                    45          27          36          22    30 
 TMP  36 34 32 38 42 42 38 33 30 29 29 31 33 33 31 30 28 25 23 27 26 
 DPT  23 21 20 20 18 16 15 16 17 18 20 25 26 23 20 17 13 10  7  3  7 
 CLD  FW FW FW CL FW FW FW SC BK OV OV OV OV OV BK FW FW CL CL FW SC 
 WDR  27 24 22 25 26 26 26 26 03 03 04 03 02 34 29 31 31 31 31 31 20 
 WSP  08 03 06 14 15 13 06 03 02 05 07 09 09 07 09 16 13 11 08 07 03 
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A developing fast-moving storm will bring a swath of snow across parts of the region tomorrow with the highest amounts occurring along the coastline from central New Jersey to southern New England, including Long Island. There is some uncertainty as to how far north the heaviest bands will make it. The 12z HREF and 18z NAM and HRRR favor their being located farther north consistent with the modeled lift. At present, on account of some of the major global guidance and the 3 km NAM favoring a further south positioning of the bands, a compromise idea is adopted.

Snowfall estimates for select cities:

Boston: 4"-8"
Bridgeport: 3"-6"
Islip: 4"-8"
New York City: 3"-6"
Newark: 3"-6"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
Providence: 4"-8"

Another light snow event could affect parts of the region on Tuesday.

Up in Canada's Nunavut Province, temperatures will reach record high levels tomorrow through at least Monday. That push of exceptional warmth will dislodge a frigid Arctic air mass currently located over northwestern Canada. That cold air mass will likely enter the Northern Plains States early next week. Afterward, it could slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions just before mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +0.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.224 today.

On February 5 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.111 (RMM). The February 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.001.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.5" snow.

 

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro got colder for the overunning and coastal for next week

Minus 2-4 from it

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Thing is all the models last night got iffy down here in Philly. Heavy precip aimed more towards your way. I don’t see it getting worse but I guess it could. Just something to keep an eye on. Yesterday it was Mid atlantic & then last night pretty big bump N on most of guidance. This looks like a really good setup for Philly burbs into NYC & SNE

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The next 8 days are averaging 27degs.(22/32), or -7.0.

Today's snow down to just 3"-5" on the models.

39*(54%RH) here at 6am.     P> 1017.5mb.

37*(70%RH) P> 1016.1mb at 9am, snowing throughout.........        36* at 9:15am(79%RH).       35*(88%RH) at 9:30am.       34*(94%RH) at 10am.       Still 34*(98%) at 2pm.   P>1010.9mb.

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27 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Threads continue through the 13th, and probably adding something for the 16th-17th centered later today.  This seems a bit unusual to have so many wintry events in a 2-3 week period but am enjoying. Snow pack should continue here through at least the 17th. 

This is a really interesting pattern. It looks like the strongest MJO phase 7 with such intense Greenland blocking. So our area is in the battle zone between the SE Ridge and pressing TPV. The end result will be an unusually high number of winter storm events here. 

C1ECC0D9-7684-4595-8CF6-752A98763B7C.thumb.png.f5af3f6b24974472b4bd8c34984459ce.png

55EC88BF-A0B2-43FB-AD05-DD8C38E0EA8E.thumb.png.a9f9a927696e102e65417711672e76bc.png

 

 

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Morning thoughts...

On this date in 1967, a major snowstorm was burying the region. This time around, a fast-moving system will provide parts of the region with a period of heavy snow, but smaller accumulations are likely. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely pick up 3”-6” snow while Islip sees 4”-8”.  Locations such as Newburgh and Poughkeepsie should pick up 2”-4” snow. The HREF ensemble system shows a large area of 4”-6” snows with 6”-8” (and even an area of 8”-10” on eastern Long Island) across northeast New Jersey and eastward. This data provides some confidence that total snowfall will likely exceed the lowest amounts shown on some of the global models.

At 8:40 am, the first snow was falling in parts of New York City, including Brooklyn and flurries extended into southern Westchester County. Snow will fall moderately to occasionally heavily at times, especially from late morning into the afternoon. Where banding develops, snow could fall at a rate of 1” per hour. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 35°

Newark: 35°

Philadelphia: 36°

Tomorrow will be fair and cold, but another system could bring a period of light snow on Tuesday. Areas to the north and west of Newark and New York City have the best chance of seeing accumulating snow from that system.

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