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Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2


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From OAX

Regarding snowfall amounts, areas along the NE/SD border will see
less than inch, if anything at all. Currently have Lincoln and
Omaha/Council Bluffs along I80 around 9 inches through Tuesday
morning, and 12 to 15 inches centered about 50 miles farther south
around Nebraska City. The probability for 18" of snow at Neb City
has now increased to about 15%, up from about 7% from the run
last night. This information is available in graphic format on our
winter website at weather.gov/oax/winter The heavy wet snow,
combined with the northeast wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph could
cause the some tree and power line damage.

To add additional context, we`re forecasting record breaking
daily precipitation (which includes melted snow) at both Lincoln
and Omaha Monday. And snowfall could end up in the top 5-10 all
time single day values if this pans out with the 9" expected, and
ranked even higher if the axis shift slightly north. Interesting
to note the all-time highest 1 day snowfall occurred Feb 11 1965,
with 18.3" and 19" at Lincoln.

 

 

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1 hour ago, tuanis said:

Thread has gone quiet. Maybe we're all relishing in the Packers' loss:popcorn:

Hate relying on lake effect/lake enhancement to make up for a less impressive synoptic system than progged. Can be so fickle.

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Going to have to watch this dry slot at 500mb closely tomorrow evening. A lot of today's guidance is showing a drying out of the dendritic growth zone and is no longer co-locating the best lift within that layer. Both of those things are negatives when it comes to snow-liquid ratios. The DGZ is just below 500mb but these RH plots are a good proxy for where there is better saturation, based on all the forecast soundings I've seen. GFS is on its own for the Chicago area. If the other guidance is right, precip will be showery by the time it reaches Chicago and could produce grainier snow w/ ratios as low as 5-6:1. 

models-2021012418-f030.500rh.us_mw.gif.39517e93632cf123925f1a673ae1c3e7.gif 

That dry air at 500 mb can clearly be seen moving into southwest TX on mid-level W/V imagery. Looking at the various soundings, it certainly can be a negating factor to ratios tomorrow evening as you point out. If you look at some of the 00z soundings from the southwest like El Paso, Midland, Del Rio, and Albuquerque, also being advected northeastward with the dry layer at 500 mb will be very steep mid and upper level lapse rates, which can be seen on local forecast soundings tomorrow evening (lapse rates of 7.5 to 9C/km, depending on which model you look at. The possibility of upright or slantwise convection as the snow arrives tomorrow evening is a wild card in terms of the rates we'll get. If convection occurs, it's difficult to predict how the profile will be modified. If the dry air wins out, that will certainly be very detrimental to snow ratios and amounts tomorrow evening. On the other hand, I'm not sure we can safely assume that in the presence of such steep lapse rates that convection won't enable re-saturation up there and help produce heavier rates. Something to watch. 

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9 minutes ago, Natester said:

0z HRRR slightly south and slightly wetter.  Shows 5 inches for CR via 10:1 method.

Meaning Cincinnati is the pick spot for the snowfall of all the state of Ohio. :P The northern parts of the state, like Toledo, are unfortunately screwed.
sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

The NAM is a mystery.  The 12z had nothing in Waterloo (IA).  The 00z has nearly a foot in Waterloo.  It has heavier snow well to the northwest of Cedar Rapids than it does in Cedar Rapids or Iowa City.

ride it

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Idk, I'm still kind of hyped. I know a lot of the excitement died yesterday and today but looking through the models, I'm just glad that we can a hopefully get a solid 6"+. It's better than nothing, we could live in Indianapolis lol 

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