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Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said:

HRRR and RAP bring the mix line dangerously close to Detroit now. Snow totals have improved a little, but worried we flirt with sleet and then the dry slot. 

Yep. Currently no mention of mix here but I will be surprised if we manage to avoid it completely. It's a theme this winter. Both biggest snows have melted to some degree within 12 hrs after falling. Still seems northern SEMI would get a WWA.

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8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

One hell of a dry slot here

 lots of blue skies above the low clouds ..some sunshine

 not much sign of it filing back in..perhaps in North central MO a little last few frames

 

temp above freezing now too

 

 

 

Glad this hitting here during peak cooling and not the opposite.

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4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

HRDPS is bullish for the GTA tomorrow. If that FGEN band materializes as shown on the models, there could be an intense burst of +SN for 2 hours tomorrow morning. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see 4-6"+ tomorrow. 

The FGEN banding does look like it will thump for a little while tomorrow morning into early afternoon. I'm expecting 2-4" across most of S ON, with local amounts of 4-6" across parts of GTHA that cash in on banding features. Easterly wind gusts 40-60km/hr.

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_fh17-30.thumb.gif.2298469672785d6c8aa4f15a608dca51.gif

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Big red flag out west with a lot of areas are under-performing model guidance, quite significantly.

Most guidance had 12-18" across N Kansas into SE Nebraska, and NWS had 8-18" range across this area.

As of now it looks like there will be no more than 8" in N Kansas. Well under guidance, and barely making the forecast range.

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5 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

The FGEN banding does look like it will thump for a little while tomorrow morning into early afternoon. I'm expecting 2-4" across most of S ON, with local amounts of 4-6" across parts of GTHA that cash in on banding features. Easterly wind gusts 40-60km/hr.

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_fh17-30.thumb.gif.2298469672785d6c8aa4f15a608dca51.gif

I've noticed these type of deformation bands always set-up away from the Lake especially north of 401. Thermals look good for some decent dendrites too.

What's your take on any potential lake enhancement? 

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Big red flag out west with a lot of areas are under-performing model guidance, quite significantly.

Most guidance had 12-18" across N Kansas into SE Nebraska, and NWS had 8-18" range across this area.

As of now it looks like there will be no more than 8" in N Kansas. Well under guidance, and barely making the forecast range.

How's the Nebraska part looking (I haven't checked)

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12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Big red flag out west with a lot of areas are under-performing model guidance, quite significantly.

Most guidance had 12-18" across N Kansas into SE Nebraska, and NWS had 8-18" range across this area.

As of now it looks like there will be no more than 8" in N Kansas. Well under guidance, and barely making the forecast range.

Ouch

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