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Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2


Chicago Storm
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Does anyone have any idea why WeatherBell's Kuchera output seemingly always bumps up totals to an unrealistic degree even in near freezing setups? Looking at the Pivotal Weather vs WxBell for 00z Euro it's a very noticeable difference that doesn't make sense since Kuchera is based off of MaxT from sfc to 500 mb.

The WxBell Kuchera can rarely work out like with the clipper snow squall a few nights ago but otherwise always seems overdone.

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The 00z Euro was the first run to hit the sleet threat harder. I was wondering if any of the models would pick up on this. It makes sense that there would be a sleet zone in between the snow and freezing rain zones, usually don't transition directly from freezing rain to snow in a system of this type. 15f68e6e4b4968bb06914a661b53a22f.jpg

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11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 00z Euro was the first run to hit the sleet threat harder. I was wondering if any of the models would pick up on this. It makes sense that there would be a sleet zone in between the snow and freezing rain zones, usually don't transition directly from freezing rain to snow in a system of this type. 15f68e6e4b4968bb06914a661b53a22f.jpg

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I think the Canadian has been picking up on sleet too.

That sound you hear is my board brother throwing something at his screen upon looking at the 00z Euro sleet output.  :D

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I think the Canadian has been picking up on sleet too.
That sound you hear is my board brother throwing something at his screen upon looking at the 00z Euro sleet output.  
I didn't want to be the first one to say it and I thought exactly the same thing when I saw where the max sleet amount is modeled lol. Glad I was able to get some sleet added into the forecast today. If that Euro output comes close to verifying that's a pretty significant amount of sleet.

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

And good call on those who rode the 88 the WI border area, looking like a general consistency and placement win from the euro now that the gefs are in line. 

May have to shelve magic 8 ball if this track and qpf output hold for another 24hrs. Hopefully mesos fall in line with this

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think the Canadian has been picking up on sleet too.

That sound you hear is my board brother throwing something at his screen upon looking at the 00z Euro sleet output.  :D

:lol:

Eh, I've been resigned to this not being a "clean" storm for here, for awhile. Would take a minor miracle for it to be all snow at this point. Overnight LOT AFD seems to indicate any freezing/non-snow frozen precip will be NBD here, with rain taking over. GFS hug, seemingly. Not sure I'd go that far yet, but further adjustments north might be the play...as they typically are with these types of systems. Oh well, onto to the next one for me I guess. Good luck to those up north...

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