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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, maybe its easier to nickel and dime your way to a couple of forgettable extra inches in strong la nina, but odds of a big one are nearly nil in a very strong la nina.

Last three super el nino seasons:

1982-1983: Megalopolis blizzard.

1997-1998: Dec 23 bomb that dropped an 8"-spot on Ayer in an hour.

2015-2016- Top 3 mid atl blizzard.

 

I rest my case-

82-83:  Warmest winter of my 10 in Ft. Kent; 1983 was the warmest year there.

97-98:  Ice, ice baby!

15-16:  Least snowy winter at my residence since 73-74 in BGR.

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39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly.

Only one of those seasons had a major east coast event, which was the Jan 2000 mid atlantic system, which we apparently can't count since Georogie's hood smoked cirrus.

1955-1956 may have had one...decent season, and even 1975-1976 was respectable, but super el nino is more prone to big east coast storms.

Nitpick...Jan 2000 Mid-Atlantic storm didn't whiff us. It tracked right up through MA, prob almost over my head. It was about 6" and then pingers/ZR for much of interior MA. Places like BWI got near a foot since longitude helped a lot.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Nitpick...Jan 2000 Mid-Atlantic storm didn't whiff us. It tracked right up through MA, prob almost over my head. It was about 6" and then pingers/ZR for much of interior MA. Places like BWI got near a foot since longitude helped a lot.

That's right....what a brain cramp.

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23 minutes ago, George001 said:

 

2010-2011 is the strong Nina on record going by MEI, so I would count it as a super Nina. Your other points are valid though, I focus too much on my backyard rather than the actual pattern in place when drawing my conclusions which is flawed logic. I’ll concede I was wrong about super ninas favoring more huge events than strong ninos, however I still would rather have a strong Nina. I would rather have a bunch of 6-12 type storms with cold nearby than have a super mild and snowless winter with one 2 footer that melts in 2 days.

That is entirely fair.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get what you mean in that past ENSO composites need to be modified, but I'm not sure that that will change the fact that there is a more prominent STJ during el nino than la nina...or let me rephrase, until I see evidence that that is no longer the case, I'll take my chances on scoring a big fish in a strong el nino, rather than la nina.

Only 22 winters here, but our biggest events have come in weak ENSO.  Maybe NNE is different in ENSO? 

ENSO    N       Lg Event      Avg lg   #15"+

VS Nino   1         8.5"            8.5"         0
S Nino      0         n/a 
M Nino    2        13.8"         12.3"         0
W Nino    4        21.0"         15.4"         3
La Nada  7        24.5"         15.6"         4
W Nina    4        21.0"         17.4"         8
M Nina    4        12.5"         1.5"           1
S Nina     0         n/a

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54 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Only 22 winters here, but our biggest events have come in weak ENSO.  Maybe NNE is different in ENSO? 

ENSO    N       Lg Event      Avg lg   #15"+

VS Nino   1         8.5"            8.5"         0
S Nino      0         n/a 
M Nino    2        13.8"         12.3"         0
W Nino    4        21.0"         15.4"         3
La Nada  7        24.5"         15.6"         4
W Nina    4        21.0"         17.4"         8
M Nina    4        12.5"         1.5"           1
S Nina     0         n/a

No, weak ENSO is better here, too. 

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On 2/21/2021 at 2:45 PM, powderfreak said:

Today was the first day I noticed the solar gain.  Even at temps solidly below freezing (max of 26F, dew of 5F), snowpacked pavement was getting torched and melting.  Fist time of the season seeing melting on pavement in sunshine while the snowpack itself stays cold/dry.

That'll really glare on Wednesday ... least down here.  Looks like light wind and 48 2pm ... that's the first real nape day right there.  Fake warm incarnate - with gutter rivulets

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19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That'll really glare on Wednesday ... least down here.  Looks like light wind and 48 2pm ... that's the first real nape day right there.  Fake warm incarnate - with gutter rivulets

That deep snowpack to our SW and source region tomorrow will prevent 50’s and 60’s which we’d see with no pack there to here.

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Assuming ORH gets no more measurable snow for the month of February, they finish with 30.9" for the month. That breaks the streak fo 3 consecutive below average snow Februarys from 2018-2020. Though that 3 year streak came on the heels of 5 consecutive above average snowfall Februarys from 2013-2017. So this still makes 6 out of the last 9 above average and 8 out of the last 12 and 12 out of the last 17. It's been a pretty good run of Februarys for snowfall in the 2000s and beyond.

Guess we were due though given that 14 out of 17 Februarys were below normal for snowfall between 1984 and 2000.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That deep pack will negate that . Energy spent on snow melt 

We get 50s all the time with deep pack late in the season. It can happen. If there was no pack and it was dry bare ground from here all to our southwest, we'd prob be trying to nape 60ish. We could maybe stay in the upper 40s though if clouds become too prevalent midday and beyond as the front approaches.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We get 50s all the time with deep pack late in the season. It can happen. If there was no pack and it was dry bare ground from here all to our southwest, we'd prob be trying to nape 60ish. We could maybe stay in the upper 40s though if clouds become too prevalent midday and beyond as the front approaches.

We were near 70F in Feb with full pack a few years ago.

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Just now, dendrite said:

We were near 70F in Feb with full pack a few years ago.

Yeah 2017 I remember having still full coverage on that first day of the warm blitz in the 60s and even the 2nd day down here was still half coverage with temps near 70.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah 2017 I remember having still full coverage on that first day of the warm blitz in the 60s and even the 2nd day down here was still half coverage with temps near 70.

Looking at CON now. Torch city for 3 days and the deep pack barely budged.

image.png

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looking at CON now. Torch city for 3 days and the deep pack barely budged.

image.png

Classic for the rad spots....that first day coming off 28F delays the melt and even the next night getting to 34F drastically slows it down. I think I was prob hemorrhaging at like 42-43F on a couple of those nights. :lol:

But I def remember that first day well into the 60s with total full cover even here where we started with a weaker pack than up north. I think we had around 7-8" left by the first day instead of 17" like CON.

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Heh... if it's windy no bueno tho -

'nape' only works if it's calm-ish and more sun than cloud.

If it's so much at 51% instead of 50% sky coverage ...and the wind is at all noticeable ... the nape appeal is ruined.

It really has to be that light wind and sear sun ...where a lazy stroll down ones street lies about the temperature.   49 is "63" ... so forth.  Very fragile...

I don't frankly like any wind unless it is associated with a Nor'easter, a tornado, a thunderstorm outflow... or the p-wave off a comet impact - otherwise, I find the bluster to be annoying and chilly right up the dial until ... ~ 85 F, then you steadily want more wind because ventilation is needed... 

But if 67 sunny day with wind bumping you around is a piece of shit day to me

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wow..this 12z Euro run on the 28th - last day of the month....

That is deep spring folks!  ... +4 to +5 C at 850 mb with COL pressure pattern, < 50% RH at 700 mb at sun up... sun would bust MOS easily  prior to clouding over mid afternoon - and it's possible the ceiling ends up evaporating on that front edge because it's running into weak DVM associated with that little-bubble-no-trouble surface high there.

I love that stuff when the new season lays down the law type afternoon.  Obviously it's not the defining anything else but that 12z D5 look is a pretty exceptional blue-bird day appeal. That goes right passed nape stage and into legit balm appeal there. 

image.png.499667bb9f4a691655cc7db119874cd0.png

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28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow..this 12z Euro run on the 28th - last day of the month....

That is deep spring folks!  ... +4 to +5 C at 850 mb with COL pressure pattern, < 50% RH at 700 mb at sun up... sun would bust MOS easily  prior to clouding over mid afternoon - and it's possible the ceiling ends up evaporating on that front edge because it's running into weak DVM associated with that little-bubble-no-trouble surface high there.

I love that stuff when the new season lays down the law type afternoon.  Obviously it's not the defining anything else but that 12z D5 look is a pretty exceptional blue-bird day appeal. That goes right passed nape stage and into legit balm appeal there. 

image.png.499667bb9f4a691655cc7db119874cd0.png

Sunday is looking like a winner.  

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15 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Sunday is looking like a winner.  

Hoho man ...pleezy weezie with sugar on top -

after this f'n pandemic internment camp?  

Unfortunately, fragile as is... I was just musing in the other thread that the EPS is trending up the eastern latitudes with extent of the ridge under pinning... so that's good sign for spring enthusiasts.  Otherwise, that set up has like no room for error or the boundary is too close and we be skunked -

 

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