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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

If we get striped like that I'm going to be pretty excited.  Would be the best event since January 2019.

Not sure if this is the right place to sidetrack this thread but.. I'm surprised people don't mention Feb 20 2019 with decent snowfall in that winter. I got 4.0" on the dot here in McLean, so surely a 2-4" event wouldn't be the biggest since the event prior to that. Anyways, I digress, 18z held serve, hoping for the best for everyone here!!

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Not sure if this is the right place to sidetrack this thread but.. I'm surprised people don't mention Feb 20 2019 with decent snowfall in that winter. I got 4.0" on the dot here in McLean, so surely a 2-4" event wouldn't be the biggest since the event prior to that. Anyways, I digress, 18z held serve, hoping for the best for everyone here!!

I'm trying to remember that but I have no recollection.  

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nam-nest-dc-total_snow_kuchera-1630000.thumb.png.a05196d9d31e61e51edd29ea7e3e3072.png

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I'm trying to remember that but I have no recollection.  

I mainly just remember it being progged to be a snow to rain event from like 5 days out. Off and on 3-5" and 1-3" looks but it juiced up pretty well, typical CAD held serve and there was some sleet alongside it too.

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5 minutes ago, George BM said:

Not an expert opinion but that line of convection across Kentucky looks more organized than most CAMs have it which may signify stronger WAA just ahead of it which may help us get a stronger thump.

 

1252021winterevent.thumb.PNG.a2680c87703dbafcb73bb44a4052c922.PNG

I noticed this as well...tons of lightning all day.

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20 minutes ago, George BM said:

Not an expert opinion but that line of convection across Kentucky looks more organized than most CAMs have it which may signify stronger WAA just ahead of it which may help us get a stronger thump.

 

1252021winterevent.thumb.PNG.a2680c87703dbafcb73bb44a4052c922.PNG

A coworker in Cincinnati says it’s been pouring rain all day, heavier than expected

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Very glad to see the dearth of 10:1 maps!      Kuchera is a step up, but those will still be a bit generous in an event with such a sizable depth of the lower atmosphere with temps close to 0.    It's also worth noting that the 18z NAM and NAM nest both cut down their QPF a bit, relative to 12z...

I'm still going with the NAM nest as my model of choice here, and the Ferrier maps will best account for some accumulation being lost to riming with temps so close to 0 at several levels.   DC people will be happy that it wants to whiten things there.   For the rest of us north of DC, I think it's best to plan on 1-2 and hope that a few places overperform.     Anyone expecting widespread 2-4 will likely be disappointed.

2031794830_ScreenShot2021-01-25at3_07_28PM.thumb.png.01d0467c1b4b60ef485fa7966c39099c.png

 

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