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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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8 minutes ago, high risk said:

       Just to add some actual science to justify tossing the parent NAM, rather than dismissing it by "it's the NAM".....

  - the NAM parent is on an island right now with heavy precip extending through the DC metro area.    All of the other guidance has jumped ship on higher liquid totals, including the NAM nest.

  - thermal profiles, while still snow in the NAM forecast, have zero margin for error.    It's shown nicely in the NAM nest, which also has snow for much of the area, but has more realistic QPF:

1154685124_ScreenShot2021-01-24at9_27_02PM.thumb.png.c0446052996a735dce607548e74269c7.png

        Multiple levels are pretty much right at 0C, so it wouldn't take much to turn that into sleet.    Ultimately, I do think that those of us north of the Beltway have a shot at an inch or maybe two (for some lucky folks), and that is supported by several CAMs this evening.

 

Why run the model if it's known to be flawed?

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Just now, high risk said:

           Because there is way more to judge it by than whether it's too cold and wet for DC area mixed precip events.

            Ok, that was my snarky answer.      The better answer builds on that a little more.      It's still one of the best models for handling shallow cold air masses and things like terrain-induced wind storms in the west and fog.     Ultimately, the NAM nest is a way better model, but it's driven by the 12 km NAM, so that's another reason to keep running it.     Ultimately, the NAM nest and parent are frozen (no more development is being done on them) and will likely be retired in ~3 years.

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m a little surprised that you wasted your time responding to that post.

       Fair point.     I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP....

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Is there anything from that run that we can use?

        Honestly yes.     The NAM is colder than the GFS which is notoriously crappy with low-level temperature profiles, and the NAM (in conjunction with the HRRR and some other meso models) is telling me that if I'm north of the Beltway tomorrow evening, I have a decent shot to see a modest accumulation of snow.    I personally rarely look at the 12 km version of the NAM, because the NAM nest is a much better model, and I think that is a good strategy here this evening with the 00z cycle. 

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            Ok, that was my snarky answer.      The better answer builds on that a little more.      It's still one of the best models for handling shallow cold air masses and things like terrain-induced wind storms in the west and fog.     Ultimately, the NAM nest is a way better model, but it's driven by the 12 km NAM, so that's another reason to keep running it.     Ultimately, the NAM nest and parent are frozen (no more development is being done on them) and will likely be retired in ~3 years.

Thanks - appreciate the response
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3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I don’t understand why you don’t put him on ignore. 

He’s probably smart and not here as often as us fools.

 

24 minutes ago, high risk said:

  Fair point.     I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP....

He’s fighting windmills.

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55 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

       Fair point.     I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP....

        Honestly yes.     The NAM is colder than the GFS which is notoriously crappy with low-level temperature profiles, and the NAM (in conjunction with the HRRR and some other mess models) is telling me that if I'm north of the Beltway tomorrow evening, I have a decent shot to see a modest accumulation of snow.    I personally rarely look at the 12 km version of the NAM, because the NAM nest is a much better model, and I think that is a good strategy here this evening with the 00z cycle. 

Thank you for contributing...and in case you haven't noticed his ridiculous NWP conspiracy rants drive me absolutely crazy.  It's not the stupidity of it...its the extreme disrespect to basically accuse so many people of that kind of thing without any evidence to back it up.  The audacity to think its acceptable to just make up some BS like that and impugn the integrity of others without a shred of any evidence to support the accusation.  

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