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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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Just now, stormtracker said:

We got nothing else.  F*** it, might as well pretend we're on a snowstorm eve.   Well for the next hour.  THe RGEM, GFS and even ICON will come in with 2 sleet pellets and a flake for the cumulative total of the storm.

And don't forget the Euro then coming in with precip amounts that would shame a desert.

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       Just to add some actual science to justify tossing the parent NAM, rather than dismissing it by "it's the NAM".....

  - the NAM parent is on an island right now with heavy precip extending through the DC metro area.    All of the other guidance has jumped ship on higher liquid totals, including the NAM nest.

  - thermal profiles, while still snow in the NAM forecast, have zero margin for error.    It's shown nicely in the NAM nest, which also has snow for much of the area, but has more realistic QPF:

1154685124_ScreenShot2021-01-24at9_27_02PM.thumb.png.c0446052996a735dce607548e74269c7.png

        Multiple levels are pretty much right at 0C, so it wouldn't take much to turn that into sleet.    Ultimately, I do think that those of us north of the Beltway have a shot at an inch or maybe two (for some lucky folks), and that is supported by several CAMs this evening.

 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

       Just to add some actual science to justify tossing the parent NAM, rather than dismissing it by "it's the NAM".....

  - the NAM parent is on an island right now with heavy precip extending through the DC metro area.    All of the other guidance has jumped ship on higher liquid totals, including the NAM nest.

  - thermal profiles, while still snow in the NAM forecast, have zero margin for error.    It's shown nicely in the NAM nest, which also has snow for much of the area, but has more realistic QPF:

1154685124_ScreenShot2021-01-24at9_27_02PM.thumb.png.c0446052996a735dce607548e74269c7.png

        Multiple levels are pretty much right at 0C, so it wouldn't take much to turn that into sleet.    Ultimately, I do think that those of us north of the Beltway have a shot at an inch or maybe two (for some lucky folks), and that is supported by several CAMs this evening.

 

Can I still wish it was right though?

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