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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


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So other than the GFS, most guidance is suggesting a little snow on the front end for most.

My hope is still to see snow falling for 30 mins and a coating. These disjointed, messy setups with a primary out west and relying on timely front end precip don't usually work out here, but I guess I am due for something at some point. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

You know the people at NWS at LWX are professionals. When they make a forecast so much more aggressive with snow it makes me wonder if they have access to info we don’t or if they simply have a better grasp of how to interpret that info.

I think it makes some sense to be more aggressive out your way. The further E/NE you go with this one, the drier its going to get due to the wave damping as it runs into higher pressure. Plus its going to get there sooner and it will be colder.

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

2-3" snow not aggressive at all in some  of the favored areas imo . The thermals have been fairly unchanged imby for 48 hours with snow sleet favored ending as freezing drizzle, sprinkles . It's the qpf that dried up on much of guidance till HH runs juiced up a bit . 

I'm thinking fmby 

2-3" snow

.15" -.20" sleet 

.05" zrain 

I don’t think there’s much support in the models we look at it for 3-4” of snow in Winchester. I see it in the 12k NAM but nowhere else. The euro had it, lost it, and now seems to want to bring it back.

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

2-3" snow not aggressive at all in some  of the favored areas imo . The thermals have been fairly unchanged imby for 48 hours with snow sleet favored ending as freezing drizzle, sprinkles . It's the qpf that dried up on much of guidance till HH runs juiced up a bit . 

I'm thinking fmby 

2-3" snow

.15" -.20" sleet 

.05" zrain 

Hey btw, what is your location? I’m always on the phone so I can’t see that.

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but it's dark, and I didn't happen to look outside...and whatever frozen we are gonna get wasn't supposed to come until tomorrow...

Don’t worry! It showed ss on the radar over baltimore co and city but I saw nothing - and I def kept looking even went outside - how pathetic lol. Let’s see if we can atleast get a dusting tomorrow nt. Better than zilch! 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Ah, the good ol’ pre-game NAMing. Almost like a real snowstorm!

We got nothing else.  F*** it, might as well pretend we're on a snowstorm eve.   Well for the next hour.  THe RGEM, GFS and even ICON will come in with 2 sleet pellets and a flake for the cumulative total of the storm.

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