Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 3K NAM at 12ZB44B698D-4213-4628-BF98-DAC5BE8941A0.thumb.png.807b9a31bf1019a4028345cf338a4574.png

7E5CF694-CE6A-4627-9416-A65439FDBC07.png

764FF094-8E55-4391-B361-A2EE76DCEC73.png

It’s that last map that makes little sense to me. Freezing rain typically becomes less the higher you go. If there’s cold deep enough to be freezing at around 4000 feet then it’s probably deep enough for sleet at lower elevations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

All bases covered 

Dude put up or shut up. All you do is complain yet I NEVER see you make a prediction on anything past a couple days. And frankly over the years your short range predictions based on the pressure in Pittsburg aren’t any more reliable then what the NWS has going using NWP along with classical methodology.  Earlier this winter your method was completely useless and I had to explain to you that the lack of a “suppressive high” had absolutely nothing to do with why the storm was suppressed because it was the compressed flow in the Atlantic. The pressure was irrelevant.  If you can predict the long range better without technology please show us. If you can’t then these bitter “old man yelling get off my lawn” posts are way past amusing.  Oh and save us your “how dare you respond to me in a public thread” crap too. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 7
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL this is so perfect from Mount Holly. Not only a great and accurate description of this "event", but also in a larger sense how everything seems to come together and conspires to prevent it from snowing here. Uncanny.

A long duration but mostly low impact weather system is expected for Monday night through Tuesday night. Low pressure tracking out of the southern Plains will steadily fill in and occlude as upper level support diminishes, while a weak secondary coastal wave develops south of Delmarva. The result will be an increasingly elongated but poorly organized field of precipitation over the eastern half of the country, which will bring some unsettled weather to our area. Limiting factors with this system are plentiful. Dynamically, most of our precipitation Monday night into Tuesday will be warm advection driven as the primary low tracks to our west. However, this lift source will be weakening as the system becomes more elongated and fractured. The mid level shortwave trailing the surface low will be deamplifying as it runs into ridging in place over the East. This ridging will also prevent the developing coastal wave from achieving any kind of coherent organization even as the primary low weakens. The result is a strung out mess both at the surface and aloft. In addition to weakening upper support, low level dry air will be plentiful at the onset with Canadian high pressure in place well to the north. This will erode the leading edge of the precipitation shield, and lead to a very slow northeastward advance of precipitation Monday night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

CWG issued their forecast map. With their absurd boom bust potential included theres 0 chance of being wrong. Factoring in boom bust, im supposed to see 0-3".

Was this threat ever supposed to be warning level snow? I know some runs were showing a lot of precip buts it’s drying up closer to game time. 0-3 is a good forecast IMO 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CAPE said:

LOL this is so perfect from Mount Holly. Not only a great and accurate description of this "event", but also in a larger sense how everything seems to come together and conspires to prevent it from snowing here. Uncanny.

A long duration but mostly low impact weather system is expected for Monday night through Tuesday night. Low pressure tracking out of the southern Plains will steadily fill in and occlude as upper level support diminishes, while a weak secondary coastal wave develops south of Delmarva. The result will be an increasingly elongated but poorly organized field of precipitation over the eastern half of the country, which will bring some unsettled weather to our area. Limiting factors with this system are plentiful. Dynamically, most of our precipitation Monday night into Tuesday will be warm advection driven as the primary low tracks to our west. However, this lift source will be weakening as the system becomes more elongated and fractured. The mid level shortwave trailing the surface low will be deamplifying as it runs into ridging in place over the East. This ridging will also prevent the developing coastal wave from achieving any kind of coherent organization even as the primary low weakens. The result is a strung out mess both at the surface and aloft. In addition to weakening upper support, low level dry air will be plentiful at the onset with Canadian high pressure in place well to the north. This will erode the leading edge of the precipitation shield, and lead to a very slow northeastward advance of precipitation Monday night.

Yeah it’s really nicely detailed in how we fail lol 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

18z 12k Nam holds for a decent front end thump of snow for areas DC north.

Side note: I keep going back and forth on weather or not to hook up my plow for this event. I guess I'll do it just to be safe. 

Why set up plow...do you also own a pothole repair company?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...