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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO faked me out. Decently colder in the 10-12 hours pre storm but looks slightly warmer this run as precip is falling. 

Might just be a lack of heavy precip during the initial thump.

Tbh it's not much QPF anyway... by 60 we dryslot or precip shuts off

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WSWatch issued for NW third of the LWX CWA 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
345 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

MDZ001-501-502-VAZ027>031-507-WVZ050-055-501>504-241645-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.210125T1800Z-210126T1500Z/
Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Hardy-Western Grant-
Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
345 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is
  expected. Ice accumulation from freezing rain around or greater
  than one-quarter of an inch is possible in addition to the
  possibility of snow and sleet accumulation.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, the northern Shenandoah
  Valley, the Potomac Highlands of West Virginia, and the
  northern Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the evening commute Monday as well as the morning
  commute Tuesday.
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
So euro gave up on the snow idea for Monday? Looks like the nam did as well...feeling like a 32 and rain deal for my hood.

Euro gave up on the frozen precip idea in general I believe

That's a pretty dramatic flip in one run. Good model 

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22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So euro gave up on the snow idea for Monday? Looks like the nam did as well...feeling like a 32 and rain deal for my hood.

Tried to tell people the snow aspect of this one is a bit overblown by a couple of the models...this set up screams decent ice storm for usual spots and just a glaze with 32 and rain for the cities 

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
21 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
That's a pretty dramatic flip in one run. Good model 

It dried up dramatically but that situation in very different than Thursday storm

What's it gonna take for you to do your meltdown in the banter or panic thread or maybe make your own thread for it? You will get plenty of eyeballs on it i swear. 

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25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That's a pretty dramatic flip in one run. Good model 

It still has frozen. This wave was always going to weaken as it headed east into the shredder. Models were generally too amped/overdoing the waa precip, and have adjusted. Still decent for places further west(mostly ice), but the further N/NE you go, the weaker the dynamics become.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Still looks like a snow sleet storm here ( guidance hasn't changed with the minimum zrain idea up here in 48 hours)....but qpf is the only variable changing and the wrong way :yikes:. Getting drier and drier but I think things juice up a bit in today's runs . 

Models showing 3 frozen hits in a week now with a day 7 cad setup showing now:snowing:

And somehow most of us will likely only manage a few pity flakes from all 3:lol:

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