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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12k NAM looks onboard with the thump. Surface looks slightly warmer but 850s slightly colder. Hopefully the NAMs smarter brother joins in.

3k a little warmer but nice to see the 12k join the euro. 

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Just now, Chris78 said:

@poolz1

We got named. Lol  (Purpled)

lol... heck yeah man, ill take it.  Def juiced up that WAA thump...probably the reason thermals looked better.

Felt great today with the first real CAA day of the winter...windy and just barely got above freezing. Seems like a pretty stout airmass in front of this.  22/10 right now.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

E/E rule?

NAM is still at range really. Precip starts in about 40-45 hours. I’d like to see those thermals hold or cool a bit, but 2-3” with some crust works for me. I’d also take the 5.5” the 12z euro gave me.

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4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Wasn’t it the NAM that red flagged an earlier storm and everyone discounted it showing rain?  Hopefully it will work in reverse with this storm.

Yes, the December storm. Can’t remember how far out it had that run where everything changed.  It’s worth noting that this is a pretty big change too, in the upper levels.

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8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Wasn’t it the NAM that red flagged an earlier storm and everyone discounted it showing rain?  Hopefully it will work in reverse with this storm.

Yes, I posted this yesterday. When the globals were still showing significant snow accums for the big dec storm the nam had clued in on the r/s boundary being sharp and along 95 generally. It got it right.

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'll take the 00z NAM and run... yes please.  I'll take the Euro as well... and yes... EE rule lol

I remember at PSU in the late 90s when we had model diagnostic discussions in the weather station with Jon Nese and he didn’t trust that “new ETA model” and relied on the NGM. Then twice in a row the ETA schooled him/it and he changed his tune lol. Now I feel super old. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember at PSU in the late 90s when we had model diagnostic discussions in the weather station with Jon Nese and he didn’t trust that “new ETA model” and relied on the NGM. Then twice in a row the ETA schooled him/it and he changed his tune lol. Now I feel super old

Don't worry...I recall the old Eta model...and actually using the NGM while working at a private forecasting company many years ago!!

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I remember super storm 93 they forecasted this big snow storm almost 2 weeks out. then a week out they were calling for a blizzard. Makes one wonder how they could forecast that accurate a week out back in 93. Now its like they cant tell you whats going to happen they say its to early to tell on a lot of news stations. 

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1 minute ago, Ruin said:

I remember super storm 93 they forecasted this big snow storm almost 2 weeks out. then a week out they were calling for a blizzard. Makes one wonder how they could forecast that accurate a week out back in 93. Now its like they cant tell you whats going to happen they say its to early to tell on a lot of news stations. 

The Superstorm was a perfect setup. That’s why it was probably a one in 100-200 year storm. I would think that setup is easy for models. Just like the severe outbreak in 2011. An absolutely perfect setup. Made the forecasting of it easy.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, nj2va said:
GFS still wants no part in any type of front end snow thump.  I’d side with the Euro/NAM thermals at this range though IMO.

Gfs is broken bro. It can't even give us snow with a 981 at Hatteras and cad lol

We get April-style CAD in late January now, don't ya know!! :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, nj2va said:
GFS still wants no part in any type of front end snow thump.  I’d side with the Euro/NAM thermals at this range though IMO.

Gfs is broken bro. It can't even give us snow with a 981 at Hatteras and cad lol

It only broken until we get to Thursdays bomb. ;)

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