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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


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This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly.  Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. 

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly.  Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. 

Yeah, the snow really came down pretty good for a short period of time in Baltimore and an extended period of time in Philly at an even higher rate.

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7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly.  Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. 

I was just thinking about that comparison earlier today. 

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11 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly.  Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. 

Don't have 500mb maps, but found this one in a folder on my hard drive.  Looks like a much better high for that storm.

post-98-0-90368500-1386389332.jpg.53d4174cd60376c07342d47f6fbbb876.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly.  Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. 

That was one of the best boom scenarios. Was at the fire department in Carroll County for that. We got close to 8" when only 2". 

Here's the list of LWX products issued that day, courtesy of the IEM Bot:  https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?source=LWX&year=2013&month=12&day=8&year2=2021&month2=1&day2=22&view=time&order=asc

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5 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Don't have 500mb maps, but found this one in a folder on my hard drive.  Looks like a much better high for that storm.

post-98-0-90368500-1386389332.jpg.53d4174cd60376c07342d47f6fbbb876.jpg

Yea it does look like the low is sheared out though guess that’s why it came to mind. 

 

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was just thinking about that comparison earlier today. 

I remember that being a complete dc and burbs type system until like the day of. The AM models started to show that precip into Philly. Was quite the surprise here

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2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Nobody mentioned but that first round has .5" of freezing rain through MD. .5" and above is defined as "crippling".

 

IULc4Tr.png

Doesn't really get colder than 31 or so on the run, probably wouldn't accrete that well verbatim, especially since its coming down at a good clip and hasn't been that cold leading up to the event. Could be a decent tree glazer I suppose.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Doesn't really get colder than 31 or so on the run, probably wouldn't accrete that well verbatim, especially since its coming down at a good clip and hasn't been that cold leading up to the event. Could be a decent tree glazer I suppose.

Ah, I'm not super well versed on how freezing rain accumulates. I'm from Louisiana and have never experienced significant accums.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

My current forecast is snow/sleet/freezing rain ending as light rain Tuesday morning.

Times are lean, so if I can get a decent coating of something frozen on the ground, I guess I am good with that.

Your best bet—just spill some 120 Min IPA on the front yard and see if it can actually freeze. :weight_lift:

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Just now, ErinInTheSky said:

Ah, I'm not super well versed on how freezing rain accumulates. I'm from Louisiana and have never experienced significant accums.

Neither am I honestly, so someone else might be better suited to chime in. Limited experience says it accretes better when it's more drizzly than a downpour, unless its pretty darn cold.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Another tick north on 18z euro.  12z seemed to have stopped the bleeding but 18z feels like it started again. Not sure how much more we have to give at this point. 

With another 72 hours for it to tick  north I'm not expecting any real snow even up here at the MD/PA border.

Probably a little sleet then some tree glaze. 

I was actually more worried about suppression a couple days ago lol.

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Just now, Chris78 said:

With another 72 hours for it to tick  north I'm not expecting any real snow even up here at the MD/PA border.

Probably a little sleet then some tree glaze. 

I was actually more worried about suppression a couple days ago lol.

Me too.  Thing is...it is getting suppressed. NYC is on the northeast fringe!  The real heavy precip stays south of PA. But even with the suppression the cold is too pathetic to hold. Here is the scary double bind that puts us in. If the thermal base state is so warm that to get cold we need more suppression then this...well look at Thursday. It’s not even that cold. It’s barely cold enough to snow really. And it’s taking such a suppressive flow to get even that, that there is a serious risk the storm gets squashed. So what’s our path to a win if the cold is so weak that to prevent warmth from surging north in front of any wave we need such a suppressive flow that nothing can amplify?

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z GFS colder and snowier, particularly for north of DC

The 0z NAM is painful up here...I get almost no snow but 20 miles north of me gets 10" lol.  Probably too much to ask to get that to start to shift south when the overall bleed is the other way the last 72 hours.  

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