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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t our odds of temps crashing on the back and turning all to snow increase if the system is stronger?

The backside precip that is shown on the GFS and GEFS only hits us because of the track of the low. If it’s farther north then it’s over PA. 
 

We don’t need a ton of movement to get back to an all or mostly snow event. And we have time still, but I’d like to see it happen over the next 36-48 hours.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The backside precip that is shown on the GFS and GEFS only hits us because of the track of the low. If it’s farther north then it’s over PA. 
 

We don’t need a ton of movement to get back to an all or mostly snow event. And we have time still, but I’d like to see it happen over the next 36-48 hours.

cant stop thinking about this feeling im getting that we waited a month to miss our first winter storm to the north and our 2nd one to the south

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35 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’ve never seen a backend event go well. We often get shafted.   It’s often painful no matter how well it’s presented before hand.  

I’m used to getting hosed on the front end and shafted on the backend. Spit roasted in some ways. It’s just sloppy all around

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I guess I'm going to be "that guy"  to post the 84 hr NAM but we need something positive here lol.

Big difference with the ridging out ahead of the storm. Much lower heights out ahead on the NAM. 

That's the look we need to get a region wide front end Thump. 

Sorry in advance for posting the 84 hr NAM. Lol

gfs_T850_us_16.png

namconus_T850_us_53.png

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31 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I guess I'm going to be "that guy"  to post the 84 hr NAM but we need something positive here lol.

Big difference with the ridging out ahead of the storm. Much lower heights out ahead on the NAM. 

That's the look we need to get a region wide front end Thump. 

Sorry in advance for posting the 84 hr NAM. Lol

gfs_T850_us_16.png

namconus_T850_us_53.png

No I posted the 18z NAM in comparison to the GFS showing that same thing...and 0z NAM went even further in that direction 0z.  We all know its the NAM at 84 hours.  But the typical bias for the NAM at range is over amped not under.  The NAM also might be better suited to handle the thermal profile which might impact the ridging in front...this is not a particularly amplified system that will automatically bully the flow.  Once in a while the NAM sniffs something out.  Lets just hope this is one of those "once in a while".  We all know the risks of believing anything the NAM has to say at range though so its fine to point out the NAM would probably be a good outcome.  It's ok to dream!!!

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If anybody can see a positive on the 0z GFS, I'd like to hear it.

What's sad is its not like the block isn't doing its job...this storm isnt very amplified...it only rides north because its following the thermal boundary and that is so far north...but no precip even makes it to Boston and NYC is on the northern fringe.  And yet DC is all rain...think about that.  Even with a block strong enough to stop a system dead in its tracks and force is southeast such that from a primary that far NW anyone northeast of NYC gets no precip...and we still can't get frozen...on JANUARY 26!!!!!!!!!!!!!   Frankly the whole lack of frozen to the north and northeast of the low is amazing given the blocking on top and the time of year.  Amazing scarily pathetic!   

Rant over...our only hope is that the globals are pressing the boundary too far north with such a relatively weak wave and that blocking over the top.  But the trend is all the wrong way for 48 hours now.  

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