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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

I don't recall the GFS looking that great for the northern tier counties either. I have a job so I can't constantly follow your posts, forgive me.

I'm going to mute this thread until the 4 PM forecast and AFD updates as the roller coaster of the snow maps where I'm at (N IL) is just too much! ;-)

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Without access to ensemble data from the UK, we don't know where the operational falls within the spread of its own ensemble system. The only more consistent forecast system has been the ECMWF/EPS. That said, while GFS operational has been very inconsistent, the overall suite has trended north the past several cycles, especially on the 12z GEFS.

 

The UKMET is concerning in that it's a possible scenario that can't yet be ruled out. The 12z ECMWF/EPS are the big key to this. If there aren't big changes from the 06z, I'd consider the UK a lower probability southern outlier like the NAM.

 

 Edit: And I'd like to restate from yesterday, given antecedent pattern for this event, including initially pretty marginal thermals, I feel confident in saying we wouldnt even be in the game in most of northern IL without the NAO block. Maybe a more east based block could modulate enough and still keep us in the snow threat zone, but with a positive NAO, I don't see how Alek wouldn't be posting the Eurythmics video.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I don't see what the huge fuss is about. Some of you lot have been in this game since before I was born, so I'd expect everyone to understand that at this juncture, you'd practically WANT the models to shift away from you a little bit. We're just under four days out right now; that's plenty of time for this storm to pivot way the hell back north. Personally, I love where I sit in DuPage but I wouldn't be surprised if the heaviest axis of snow shifts back north of me a few runs from now. Everyone just be polite, this may be our only shot at having a good storm thread this season so don't goof it up by being sour. 

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1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

I don't see what the huge fuss is about. Some of you lot have been in this game since before I was born, so I'd expect everyone to understand that at this juncture, you'd practically WANT the models to shift away from you a little bit. We're just under four days out right now; that's plenty of time for this storm to pivot way the hell back north. Personally, I love where I sit in DuPage but I wouldn't be surprised if the heaviest axis of snow shifts back north of me a few runs from now. Everyone just be polite, this may be our only shot at having a good storm thread this season so don't goof it up by being sour. 

This. It could be in central IL by 00z tonight and the main weenie band band could still end up near the IL/WI border. Have seen that happen many times before

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9 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I don't see what the huge fuss is about. Some of you lot have been in this game since before I was born, so I'd expect everyone to understand that at this juncture, you'd practically WANT the models to shift away from you a little bit. We're just under four days out right now; that's plenty of time for this storm to pivot way the hell back north. Personally, I love where I sit in DuPage but I wouldn't be surprised if the heaviest axis of snow shifts back north of me a few runs from now. Everyone just be polite, this may be our only shot at having a good storm thread this season so don't goof it up by being sour. 

agreed. Couple of newbies got loose from pre school. Best not to engage. As I said two days ago...going to be a long slog.:cry:

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


you’re still not in the game, champ.


.

Every Sub-Forum needs a ,USCAPEWEATHERAF.

Understandably - Everybody wants a piece of this storm. From Saukville to Indy. Sucks to be those two ATM.  Detroit Duster can still save Indy.  Saukville is gasping for air but a shipment of easterly dry air is due to arrive..  gonna get good in here.

 

 

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Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see.

1037415167_ScreenShot2021-01-22at11_36_57AM.png.385aaf9774a40f3c212947a6365ac070.png

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see.

1037415167_ScreenShot2021-01-22at11_36_57AM.png.385aaf9774a40f3c212947a6365ac070.png

Agreed, though slightly further north. Chicago is definitely still in this, imo. 

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7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see.

1037415167_ScreenShot2021-01-22at11_36_57AM.png.385aaf9774a40f3c212947a6365ac070.png

I agree with you that further south solutions are less prone to lake enhancement.

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4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

I don't really see how one can establish a "trend" when models keep flip-flopping back and forth, nor can I see a solution where Indianapolis gets the brunt of this.

Exactly.

Additionally...In an alternate universe where the storm system was suppressed far enough south where IND ended up in the heart of the snow swath, it would be a sub-par event.

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