Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

LE anyone?

Highly unfavorable for lake effect if you assume the GEFS temp profile is anywhere near the GFS Monday evening. You'd want to see at least -10C between the surface and 850 mb, and it's showing about -5C at the coldest. That's a delta T of about 10C, usually want 15C+ for true lake effect.

Lake enhancement due to low level convergence could maybe produce an additional inch lakeside, in my scientific opinion.

228270251_ScreenShot2021-01-22at10_22_52AM.thumb.png.b163f1ce8849dd758209d8d72147ca78.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, purduewx80 said:

Highly unfavorable for lake effect if you assume the GEFS temp profile is anywhere near the GFS Monday evening. You'd want to see at least -10C between the surface and 850 mb, and it's showing about -5C at the coldest. That's a delta T of about 10C, usually want 15C+ for true lake effect.

Lake enhancement due to low level convergence could maybe produce an additional inch lakeside, in my scientific opinion.

228270251_ScreenShot2021-01-22at10_22_52AM.thumb.png.b163f1ce8849dd758209d8d72147ca78.png

When I say LE, I'm referring to lake enhancement.

And I'll buy your 1" and rebid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, purduewx80 said:

Highly unfavorable for lake effect if you assume the GEFS temp profile is anywhere near the GFS Monday evening. You'd want to see at least -10C between the surface and 850 mb, and it's showing about -5C at the coldest. That's a delta T of about 10C, usually want 15C+ for true lake effect.

Lake enhancement due to low level convergence could maybe produce an additional inch lakeside, in my scientific opinion.

 

drag 'em

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Thundersnow12 said:

Joe says your LE thoughts are lol and can’t wait for GFS to verify 

I don't know who Joe is, but if anyone on here can provide a scientific, meteorological analysis of how dendritic snow growth would occur with marginal lake effect parameters, I'd be happy to listen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Highly unfavorable for lake effect if you assume the GEFS temp profile is anywhere near the GFS Monday evening. You'd want to see at least -10C between the surface and 850 mb, and it's showing about -5C at the coldest. That's a delta T of about 10C, usually want 15C+ for true lake effect.

Lake enhancement due to low level convergence could maybe produce an additional inch lakeside, in my scientific opinion.

228270251_ScreenShot2021-01-22at10_22_52AM.thumb.png.b163f1ce8849dd758209d8d72147ca78.png

 

492.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It seems some models that keep this further south, are weakening the low rather quickly, thus the more east track vs NE once it gets to indiana. Is it weakening due to the interaction with the northern confluence, not allowing the low to track where it wants, or is it just maxing out quickly due to the overall lack of strength of the low origin?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

**** that guy, he’s never right.

 

Sometimes you can reel in an overperformer being on the north fringes in this kind of setup.  LE and Light to moderate snows for hrs if you are in that sweet spot pivot pint.  The lake here could def come in to play for Geos and even Kenosha. This storm would be bad ass with a few very minor tweaks.  Even as modeled now this is a great storm south of the border. I'll miss the epic pictures from Alek's Skyscraper cozy office.  Days of Yore.

 

260.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3f41cf91eef61516bb4e4adf4b1e370c.jpg&key=b2dca6b5298d91707a7208ebc48a4d7988be8fbec15f55ebda74f54602b1303cedfa018cfaf2a9b3cbefead6518deadb.jpg&key=880184842336eb45d78495a9023876da1752335ae55b40c303e270978980db85

 

like was mentioned yesterday, RFD always does reasonably well, I feel like I get lucky more than my fair share. feeling okay with trends being in lot northern tier, although I do think biggest totals will be between I88 and I80. So with that I need to boost my snowpack. Laid down a nice manmade base with the consistent cold leading up to Christmas, then Mother Nature filled everything in and has kept fairy dust refreshing me a 1/2” to an 1” at a time. Given today’s cold I figured better be safe and make sure I can hold on to my snowpack until Memorial Day, so I’m making snow for the first time since Christmas. Hopefully we get lucky over the next 96 hours or so and I end up with a ridiculous base. I’ll post pics if it happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, mimillman said:

Is the writing back on the wall now? That wall must be getting very wordy

 

Just now, mimillman said:

Is the writing back on the wall now? That wall must be getting very wordy

he smokes my area in the ukmet scenario... 0.9 vs 0.4. Nightmare solution for Chicago as we split the minimal WAA wave and the main wave goes south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...