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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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@stormtracker I’m looking at the ensemble members in the eps and gefs that had hits from that wave on the 25th. They phase that NS wave that the op run just ran out ahead. That has to be behind the southern feature and phase. Otherwise the southern feature won’t survive the shred factory flow.  If that doesn’t happen we need to wait as the trough/ridge retrograde until it pulls back enough to let the eastern trough axis pull back some. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@stormtracker I’m looking at the ensemble members in the eps and gefs that had hits from that wave on the 25th. They phase that NS wave that the op run just ran out ahead. That has to be behind the southern feature and phase. Otherwise the southern feature won’t survive the shred factory flow.  If that doesn’t happen we need to wait as the trough/ridge retrograde until it pulls back enough to let the eastern trough axis pull back some. 

Yeah, from run to run I keep looking for meaningful changes up top.  Until then we will be waving to the south at our snow

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Just now, Ji said:
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:
There are 3 southern waves there...we need one to phase with the NS 

Phasing wasn't even close on gfs

It wasn’t close but it wasn’t so far off that it’s impossible. It got the NS SW out ahead of the southern feature. No dice. It needed to dig a little more and get in behind. Timing was off. 

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It wasn’t close but it wasn’t so far off that it’s impossible. It got the NS SW out ahead of the southern feature. No dice. It needed to dig a little more and get in behind. Timing was off. 
I would kill for a cutter at this point . Better chance of seeing snow.
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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, from run to run I keep looking for meaningful changes up top.  Until then we will be waving to the south at our snow

That block is blocking lol but IMO the bigger issue is the orientation of the trough/ridge to our west.  The western trough cuts off and sits in a bad spot on the op gfs. Too far west for anything to amplify through the ridge not far enough west to let something dig into the east. That western trough needs to either shift east and link up with the eastern trough or more likely pull back enough to let the ridge pull west and something can amplify in the east. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

That block is blocking lol but IMO the bigger issue is the orientation of the trough/ridge to our west.  The western trough cuts off and sits in a bad spot on the op gfs. Too far west for anything to amplify through the ridge not far enough west to let something dig into the east. That western trough needs to either shift east and link up with the eastern trough or more likely pull back enough to let the ridge pull west and something can amplify in the east. 

Yes... but it doesnt help to have a 1050mb HP pressing down into the Central Plains... confluence crushes it all

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What an incredibly frustrating GFS and CMC run. As much as it sucks this is run after run leaving our region high and dry. Can’t discard it. I wonder what happens to the pattern after the nao block retrogrades completely and has to rebuild. Probably have a pattern relaxation and you know we’ll probably fit a rain event in there somewhere with our luck

 

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What an incredibly frustrating GFS and CMC run. As much as it sucks this is run after run leaving our region high and dry. Can’t discard it. I wonder what happens to the pattern after the nao block retrogrades completely and has to rebuild. Probably have a pattern relaxation and you know we’ll probably fit a rain event in there somewhere with our luck
 
See my post as to what happens
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