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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How does that work? NY State is even struggling to get cold air...the GFS has rain to Buffalo half the friggen waves this run yet the sister para can bleed enough polar air to get snow over the SE states? I get suppression,  that is a chance we risk with that block, but SE snow with our cold air struggles? I'm not buying it. The only parallel isn't the GFS sister model, its gotta be the universe im apparently living in. 

I wouldn't worry to much about it.  Last year, amidst the simultaneous raging ++++AO with Pacific Doom Blob, the GFS somehow managed to spit out snowstorm for Jacksonville, Florida.  It was gone the next run, and needless to say, it didn't happen.

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29 minutes ago, frd said:

- WPO related 

 

 

 

I think they are arguing about my point wrt the N pac being less hostile to our source regions looking ahead then in Dec/Jan.   That ridge west of AK means even with a trough near the epo domain the main air source was from Asia not the central Pacific .  

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think they are arguing about my point wrt the N pac being less hostile to our source regions looking ahead then in Dec/Jan.   That ridge west of AK means even with a trough near the epo domain the main air source was from Asia not the central Pacific .  

Exactly. 

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Just now, frd said:

35 days out and the PV never gets back to the ERA5 mean. 

 

Ensemble plume

Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down!  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down!  

What are your feelings for February? Seems to be some back peddling in the met community of a typical Niña feb response.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down!  

Yes, simply keep it weak.

Going forward it will be  interesting to see if in later Feb and March the effects of changing wavelengths combined with lingering arctic air masses and whether they mix it up along the East coast.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down!  

Structure really opening it up  late in the period. Not a tight vortex at all. 

Just looking at this animation of the vortex I would assume a - NAM state possible. Speculation of course. Supports the 35 day GEFS above though.

 

 

gfs_nh-vort3d_20210119_f384_rot000.png

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35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What are your feelings for February? Seems to be some back peddling in the met community of a typical Niña feb response.

I am cautiously optimistic.  I do think the typical Nina central pac ridge will offer some resistance and we will ridge at times. But if the NAO stays negative which guidance suggests and the pac jet remains more relaxed with a ridge in the western N pac we should get opportunities. The NAO will suppress the SE ridge at times and so long as the pac ridge extends poleward it will prevent the pac from torching us again. 

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If you want snow go to Hawaii

"URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Honolulu HI

338 AM HST Tue Jan 19 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG

ISLAND SUMMITS...

.An upper level disturbance will keep clouds and snow showers in

the forecast for the Big Island summits of Maunakea and Maunaloa

through the day.

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If you want snow go to Hawaii
"URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
338 AM HST Tue Jan 19 2021
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS...
.An upper level disturbance will keep clouds and snow showers in
the forecast for the Big Island summits of Maunakea and Maunaloa
through the day.
Telling girls that it snows in Hawaii is a great way to impress them
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EPS still likes the 28th/29th

0D700361-C777-4179-9CA6-8E951995AB3D.thumb.png.cfc86e52b0d69f1eea7d9f713dba6031.png
 

ETA: so it’s debatable whether this is capturing 2 different events over these 4 days or if it’s one event with timing differences. There aren’t any members with two hits. But members that eject a wave around the 28 that’s it. Other members wash that out and develop the next wave instead a day later.  But bottom line is eps really like something between the 28-31

653F0271-E93D-47C8-812E-9F844EFAE0E8.thumb.png.e60ecd7de5085ad128c7eff23202aa40.png

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34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS still likes the 28th/29th

0D700361-C777-4179-9CA6-8E951995AB3D.thumb.png.cfc86e52b0d69f1eea7d9f713dba6031.png
 

ETA: so it’s debatable whether this is capturing 2 different events over these 4 days or if it’s one event with timing differences. There aren’t any members with two hits. But members that eject a wave around the 28 that’s it. Other members wash that out and develop the next wave instead a day later.  But bottom line is eps really like something between the 28-31

653F0271-E93D-47C8-812E-9F844EFAE0E8.thumb.png.e60ecd7de5085ad128c7eff23202aa40.png

It is becoming clear to me that the Euro/CMC families are handling the west based nao rex a whole hell of alot better than the GFS family. For whatever reason as far back as when the GFS was the MRF I recall it struggling wrt the NS underneath blocking and it seems this is the case still 25 years later amidst all of the upgrades. I could be wrong in my analysis however and the GFS and GEFS may be the one on the right page, but recent trends seem to be in support of Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS.

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EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 6 runs (College Park) through Feb 2

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1

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Looking ahead, not a bad look here. Decent injection of cold into our source region between the WPO-ish ridge and the TPV. Enough of a trough near AK keeping the sprawling Pac ridge in check, neutral PNA, and still a decent NAO look, although displaced southwestward.. W US trough progressing eastward.

1612396800-iaHzGp75q4U.png

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