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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said:

Coming out of the Rockies it looked to have a little more to it.  It definitely did wash out though.

 

Just now, Paleocene said:

Yeah i think this is the right take, that wave coming out of the rockies weaker/less organized than it was on 00z. 

americanwx, please don't ever change...

:lol:

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Ugh @stormtracker I posted this in the wrong thread.  Moving it here. 

I think it was about to go boom but it depends on what was about to happen with the feature near Montreal that was diving in.  
FC59075A-7563-47D3-B029-9FEC936DC2CB.thumb.jpeg.a0b76088febacd67280f4aa1550fdbbe.jpeg

If it was about to phase (I think???) it was gonna be huge. If it was going to act to shear the amplifying h5 low coming right for us...then it might have muted the result. Curious what @WxUSAF thinks. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ugh @stormtracker I posted this in the wrong thread.  Moving it here. 

I think it was about to go boom but it depends on what was about to happen with the feature near Montreal that was diving in.  
FC59075A-7563-47D3-B029-9FEC936DC2CB.thumb.jpeg.a0b76088febacd67280f4aa1550fdbbe.jpeg

If it was about to phase (I think???) it was gonna be huge. If it was going to act to shear the amplifying h5 low coming right for us...then it might have muted the result. Curious what @WxUSAF thinks. 

March 2001 scenario. Complicated.

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ugh @stormtracker I posted this in the wrong thread.  Moving it here. 

I think it was about to go boom but it depends on what was about to happen with the feature near Montreal that was diving in.  
FC59075A-7563-47D3-B029-9FEC936DC2CB.thumb.jpeg.a0b76088febacd67280f4aa1550fdbbe.jpeg

If it was about to phase (I think???) it was gonna be huge. If it was going to act to shear the amplifying h5 low coming right for us...then it might have muted the result. Curious what @WxUSAF thinks. 

700mb wind maps says it all.   Screaming Jet from KS to Bermuda.   Ahead of the low there's almost no southerly winds.  Not taping any juice with that setup.

R232zhU.png

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10 minutes ago, Amped said:

700mb wind maps says it all.   Screaming Jet from KS to Bermuda.   Ahead of the low there's almost no southerly winds.  Not taping any juice with that setup.

R232zhU.png

It’s a little better by 240. The upper low is still near Omaha there. But this isn’t a setup that needs a ton of deep moisture feed. If we get an amplifying closed low to pass over us just need enough. Not all setups are the same. 

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@frd there are 3 distinct threats on the EPS. First is discussed in the day 3-7 thread. This frame captures the day 9-11 threat. 
AE01B69E-D15E-493C-B79A-58874F7F4DBA.thumb.png.2ac063c310a62ac0c96043755ea9400f.png

I’ve covered this. It’s the one I’ve thought had the most potential to be a big storm. I’m not kicking the otters out of bed though. 

EPS tees up another wave for groundhogs day. Questionable on thermals by then but it’s not a bad signal.  It certainly favors the northern parts more but there are enough members with a far enough south track to watch. 
A771F35F-B8FA-4AB9-A518-2ED5CCBC4DE6.thumb.png.fed6d1fbabeacfe06e121f230ce2929e.png

339671EA-6FDB-40C5-969B-D2F7A468B6CF.thumb.jpeg.6892f7d7da9fba5b69d38b5f068b0c50.jpeg

The setup is there..can see the energy being forced under the block.  Ridge is suppressed.  Would depend on how much and where the cold boundary is setup probably.  

 

 


 

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The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. 
 

Chuck can explain. 

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