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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, stormtracker said:

Well Euro snows on us.  Not a heavy event so far...but blue!  Look at that mighty 1015 Low.

It doesn’t have enough separation between waves to really amp. But the good news is without much separation to allow the cold to press south behind the NS wave we need less amped. If we can get some separation between the multiple waves next week after the lead NS wave clears that would be our chance at a bigger event. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I think this might be incoming on the Euro after that initial wave.

Lol I typed that up and then looked as the next panels loaded... details aside the whole euro progression is closer to my “vision” a week ago. Much less ridging and more of a mid latitude handoff between the western and eastern trough under the block v blasting a ridge between the two. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It doesn’t have enough separation between waves to really amp. But the good news is without much separation to allow the cold to press south behind the NS wave we need less amped. If we can get some separation between the multiple waves next week after the lead NS wave clears that would be our chance at a bigger event. 

Keep watching the Euro...I have that feeling.  I'm talking about the trailing wave

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3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Is this the other one that I think @psuhoffman said potentially might be a better setup just afterward?

 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Keep watching the Euro...I have that feeling.  I'm talking about the trailing wave

Yes that’s always been the most likely time period based on pattern progression. As everything retrogrades that’s the point where something is most likely to amplify in the east yet have a boundary far enough south to keep us on the frozen side. Doesn’t mean we don’t get something before or after...the pattern isn’t crap on either side of that but that’s when it all seems right wrt the longwave features to see an amplified wave along the east coast south of us. That’s all I saw. The details have to fill in as we get closer. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  Completely falls apart just when it gets to us.   This winter man...

ETA:  There's somebody behind it, but F that noise.  

It's like that corollary to Murphy's Law:  you can't win, you can't break even, you can't even quit the game!  Kinda how it feels.  But...let's see how things go over the next few days I guess.  Seems overall to be a better evolution than a near-full latitude ridge.

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