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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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It's about time to crack open a crispy boy and watch the GFS flip completely to rain for the D9 threat dump feet of snow over the metro corridor . Happy happy hour everyone.

On a serious note, there is a sliiightly stronger high over the north central plains at D7 on the 18z GFS run. Compared to 12z. Fingers crossed for some digital ice.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm good with where the GFS is (weenie dictionary)...pretty juiced up system.  We all know it's gonna be different in 6 hours

I think the big takeaway from this range has been that there's pretty good agreement that we're getting a decent qpf system near or at our latitude. Haven't had something like that for nearly over a month now

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like a perfect track juicy system in late January and GFS still struggles to get a cold column 200mi north of the low.

I like this run better than the 12z even though it took 6 inches of blue away from me lol. Even with that pesky great lakes low with that kind of track I would of thought the outcome would of been better.

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1 minute ago, frd said:

 

This time the axis is more West to East . Just happy this this period has some hits. Long way to go, but still a positive. 

 

image.png.1159537dbf2ac402120990eadb285829.png

Doesn't matter given that it's 9 + days out, but that axis of snow looks strikingly similar to the Jan 26 2011 PSU storm. Also the storm that got me into meteorology at the ripe age of 7 :p

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16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like a perfect track juicy system in late January and GFS still struggles to get a cold column 200mi north of the low.

It can’t decide what to do with the NS. Yesterday it was diving in front and squashing. 12z it phased and cut. This run it slides across on top. That runs some interference but it’s still a pathetic thermal presentation for late January and no pac puke excuse this time.  

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