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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Tell you the truth if I get 12” of snow between now and March 1st I’d consider that a pretty big failure with the pattern we have.

Agree. With the blocking regime and entering into prime time if I end up with that I think I'll be a bit disappointed. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Tell you the truth if I get 12” of snow between now and March 1st I’d consider that a pretty big failure with the pattern we have.

The weekly ensemble members are not run at high resolution. They won’t estimate things like meso banding and that’s 10-1 which if you and I get a flush hit you know ratios would be higher.  The gradient to the NW of 95 is NEVER as sharp as reality would be on those because a lot of what causes our enhanced totals are meso features (upslope and higher ratios and banding) a low res ensemble member won’t see.  Also a 50 member ensemble will always skew towards the mean by outlier members. It works both ways. I would say the same if the pattern looked awful and it showed a 3-4” mean. Thats actually a shutout look. Just a few outliers skewing towards the mean. What I’m saying is it’s the axis and anomaly that matters more then the total.  Snow maps aren’t even close to the best way to analyze the pattern but you can take hints from them if you know how to interpret them. 

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5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Not me. After how this winter has been I’d sign off on 12” in a heartbeat, and I live in Philly. Just give it to me in one storm and I’m good to go. 

I agree. 12" on top of the 2.5" I've gotten so far this year would be around the most snow my area has seen in a La Nina in my lifetime (no 95-96 or 99-00 to throw in there of course), and we'd obviously have a chance to get some SECSY/HECSY action with the Modoki Mod Nino + low solar next year ;) 

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I would sign on the dotted line for 2 (even low end) warning level events through Feb at this point. We are in a motherfuccking rut man.

We’re in the worst snow drought IN HISTORY. This is like if you’re starving and someone offers you a bucket of chicken and they’re like “I’m not eating that unless I get a biscuit”. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The weekly ensemble members are not run at high resolution. They won’t estimate things like meso banding and that’s 10-1 which if you and I get a flush hit you know ratios would be higher.  The gradient to the NW of 95 is NEVER as sharp as reality would be on those because a lot of what causes our enhanced totals are meso features (upslope and higher ratios and banding) a low res ensemble member won’t see.  Also a 50 member ensemble will always skew towards the mean by outlier members. It works both ways. I would say the same if the pattern looked awful and it showed a 3-4” mean. Thats actually a shutout look. Just a few outliers skewing towards the mean. What I’m saying is it’s the axis and anomaly that matters more then the total.  Snow maps aren’t even close to the best way to analyze the pattern but you can take hints from them if you know how to interpret them. 

Another plus with those maps  -   if they are relatively close to reality storms will initially put down snow cover to our North possibly aiding with CAD and may help us eventually as the pattern progresses and the baroclinic zone shifts South.  

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re in the worst snow drought IN HISTORY. This is like if you’re starving and someone offers you a bucket of chicken and they’re like “I’m not eating that unless I get a biscuit”. 

Depends on where the biscuit is from, IMO

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re in the worst snow drought IN HISTORY. This is like if you’re starving and someone offers you a bucket of chicken and they’re like “I’m not eating that unless I get a biscuit”. 

I ain't eatin' no chicken without ma damn biscuits. Bring me bugs!

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34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re in the worst snow drought IN HISTORY. This is like if you’re starving and someone offers you a bucket of chicken and they’re like “I’m not eating that unless I get a biscuit”. 

There is something terribly wrong with our climate, it's almost like climate change is accelerating and we'll be past the point of no return soon

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42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I would sign on the dotted line for 2 (even low end) warning level events through Feb at this point. We are in a motherfuccking rut man.

We've been in this rut for four years. I've had one real snow in 4 years. 2016 was a fluke that basically melted 48 hours later. We've been in a rut for a long time. This winter has been almost comical here east of DC.

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8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

We've been in this rut for four years. I've had one real snow in 4 years. 2016 was a fluke that basically melted 48 hours later. We've been in a rut for a long time. This winter has been almost comical here east of DC.

I did the beach chases in Jan 2017 and 18, but both those years were also decent in my yard, esp 2018...right at avg.

2018-2019 was a disappointment, and it has been a disaster since.

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15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Eps leaving the ssw energy even further behind - end of run hour 144 ( Control takes it to extreme and has the ssw hop a boat to Hawaii lol).  Confluence continues to move further south each run( likey)  Also of note ...the NAO moved further west which is nice  . 

We really need a piece of that sw energy to eject east  into the flow otherwise its ns dominated  pretty dry stuff .

I'm thinking the ideal scenario for the day 7 deal would be continuing of good confluence with just a piece of ssw energy ejecting east - not thr whole BB to avoid too much amping . But enough to throw decent moisture north into the confluence for a front end dump or even slide under us with some luck .

That could easily be a MR adjustment that ‘sneaks’ up on us.

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Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

Popeye's biscuits are in indeed incredible. 

Still waiting on something to pop on the models. Appreciate all the analysis here. It just feels like a roll of the dice. We have to win eventually. The roulette wheel doesn't always come up black. 

It will happen when we have all but given up and we have a +NAO, +AO and it’s March.  And everyone says it cannot snow in that pattern.  Then it will melt the next day...seen it hundreds of times...thousands 

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22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Son, Popeye's biscuits says wait, hold my beer.  If you eat one without a drink, you are definitely committing suicide.  

Legend has it that you can walk on water with shoes made out of Popeye's biscuits

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It will happen when we have all but given up and we have a +NAO, +AO and it’s March.  And everyone says it cannot snow in that pattern.  Then it will melt the next day...seen it hundreds of times...thousands 

The indexes don’t mean much in March with short wavelengths 

ETA: they do if you want a sustained pattern like March 1960 or 2018 but a fluke storm can happen in almost any pattern the way waves can dig and cut off that time of year. 

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26 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Popeye's biscuits are in indeed incredible. 

Still waiting on something to pop on the models. Appreciate all the analysis here. It just feels like a roll of the dice. We have to win eventually. The roulette wheel doesn't always come up black. 

That's kinda where I'm at with this...I liken the blocking regime other things discussed here--particularly what's to come in 10-14 days--to a slot machine that already has 1 out of 3 panels on a winning item (apologies if I'm not using the right terminology, lol), and you just need the other two to land right!

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Eps leaving the ssw energy even further behind - end of run hour 144 ( Control takes it to extreme and has the ssw hop a boat to Hawaii lol).  Confluence continues to move further south each run( likey)  Also of note ...the NAO moved further west which is nice  . 

We really need a piece of that sw energy to eject east  into the flow otherwise its ns dominated  pretty dry stuff .

I'm thinking the ideal scenario for the day 7 deal would be continuing of good confluence with just a piece of ssw energy ejecting east - not the whole BB to avoid too much amping . But enough to throw decent moisture north into the confluence for a front end dump or even slide under us with some luck .

agreed and not a far fetched solution. 

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