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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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41 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The block is quite evident on HH.  Second rain event gone 

It’s weird the Rex block is actually gone it’s just a -NAO ridge but it goes berserk with a vortex in the 50/50. It’s actually the flow under a block that creates the effect so that solution is even more suppressive 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s weird the Rex block is actually gone it’s just a -NAO ridge but it goes berserk with a vortex in the 50/50. It’s actually the flow under a block that creates the effect so that solution is even more suppressive 

One thing that has been fun..somewhat...is waiting to see what the model runs spit out...it’s not usually blue but it’s still interesting.  And again it was always post 15 Jan where we needed to pay attention.  That’s tomorrow.  Strap it on and break it off is the best way to describe the upcoming pattern.  

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1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

 

I know that the accuracy tends to drop off significantly out there, and that's also why I prefaced my post with saying that outside of 3 weeks the weeklies really go out of their way to go towards typical ENSO patterns. Although with that being said, my takeaway from that week 4 h5 map was that it was surprisingly not doing what it did the past few runs at that range, and instead tried to get us back into a favorable progression despite it's biases. Not worth much this far out, but will certainly be super fascinating to follow in about a week or two. 

yeah basically what CAPE just said 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

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Gfs ens members show a bunch of juicy systems around day 7-8 with the boundary very close to us. Not hard to imagine that trending toward a good event for us. We are snake bit so we only see the negative possibility but the reality is that most precip events lately have trended more suppressed and if that happens this time we might end up in a good spot.

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@CAPE this ones for you...euro weekly control. I get fringed up here!  Fwiw (not much) the euro weeklies had their best run wrt snow mean all winter. Clearly above climo for the period, especially along 95.  It’s not shocking...the general H5 looks workable right through Feb.  -NAO suppressed SE ridge pattern in feb could work.

control 
AA7041B8-919F-48E8-97E9-981F36BBC67B.thumb.png.6c370e607951fda2dbe2d9911f693879.png
Mean

189823F0-C8F8-438D-B12D-50DA5BCAB279.thumb.png.18d72b66d33280adc8d49b8a1d79da5e.png

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE this ones for you...euro weekly control. I get fringed up here!  Fwiw (not much) the euro weeklies had their best run wrt snow mean all winter. Clearly above climo for the period, especially along 95.  It’s not shocking...the general H5 looks workable right through Feb.  -NAO suppressed SE ridge pattern in feb could work.

control 
AA7041B8-919F-48E8-97E9-981F36BBC67B.thumb.png.6c370e607951fda2dbe2d9911f693879.png
Mean

189823F0-C8F8-438D-B12D-50DA5BCAB279.thumb.png.18d72b66d33280adc8d49b8a1d79da5e.png

Tell you the truth if I get 12” of snow between now and March 1st I’d consider that a pretty big failure with the pattern we have.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Tell you the truth if I get 12” of snow between now and March 1st I’d consider that a pretty big failure with the pattern we have.

Same. You get an -AO and -NAO for this long, especially now that we've gone several winters without a HECS, I expect a HECS and then some.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Tell you the truth if I get 12” of snow between now and March 1st I’d consider that a pretty big failure with the pattern we have.

Not me. After how this winter has been I’d sign off on 12” in a heartbeat, and I live in Philly. Just give it to me in one storm and I’m good to go. 

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