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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Dabuckeyes said:

At 198 the transfer finally starts taking place near NYC

yes.  just need it a little further south by about 300 miles.  I'm trying to figure out what the block actually blocked on that run.  the primary made it into IL...the temps spiked to near 60 on hr 198.  the HP retreated and was weak sauce to begin with.  was that supposed to happen?

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Lose the thermals at 180...but I'll take it at this point

With a primary in mn...that’s a bit much to overcome but it tries. Hope for a slightly less extreme north track to the primary and secondary might be further south.  I still think even better threats come after that wave. But not dismissing it either. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

With a primary in mn...that’s a bit much to overcome but it tries. Hope for a slightly less extreme north track to the primary and secondary might be further south.  I still think even better threats come after that wave. But not dismissing it either. 

Like this look on Day 9 of the EURO?

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  And if it's one thing New England is good at is winning in almost every scenario.  Transfers in time for them of course. 

Seems like the faster the storm ejects out of the SW, the less of a chance there is for the SE ridge to pump up heights ahead of the storm? At least that's what it seems like given that solution compared to the GFS cutting. Hoping blocking can pull through, but as that Eric Webb tweet I posted earlier, that seems to be fleeting a bit

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