mappy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We're about to get destroyed by bad model takes? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yes that’s always been the most likely time period based on pattern progression. As everything retrogrades that’s the point where something is most likely to amplify in the east yet have a boundary far enough south to keep us on the frozen side. Doesn’t mean we don’t get something before or after...the pattern isn’t crap on either side of that but that’s when it all seems right wrt the longwave features to see an amplified wave along the east coast south of us. That’s all I saw. The details have to fill in as we get closer. We need a wave just right in strength, but not too strong. My head hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: That stormtracker fella seems a bit unstable can someone check on him? Beyond unstable at this point. But nowhere near Ji level 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 There is so much suppression that literally nothing can hold together or climb north at all. The same thing that is eliminating cutters is also eliminating everything else. We have to get some relaxation in that confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 If that storm could have transferred and then rode the coast a bit we would have been hammered. It had the look early of a great one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: There is so much suppression that literally nothing can hold together or climb north at all. The same thing that is eliminating cutters is also eliminating everything else. We have to get some relaxation in that confluence. Yup..or a slightly stronger sw that won't get completely flattened. It looks great coming in...but then again, I guess I'm supposed to know what a model does in every panel even though we can't see it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Beyond unstable at this point. But nowhere near Ji level you know what helps. JWB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: There is so much suppression that literally nothing can hold together or climb north at all. The same thing that is eliminating cutters is also eliminating everything else. We have to get some relaxation in that confluence. Bamwx to the rescue...wasn't last night and this morning all about warmth and no chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 WB 12Z EURO...rather it do this then rain but models are still over the place... 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Bamwx to the rescue...wasn't last night and this morning all about warmth and no chances? I'm logging off. Take over the unstable role...unless you want Ji to handle it. I'm sad. And irritated. Hold me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Narrator: Everything. No that run was beautiful. We want that boundary a little south of us at 200 hours. This isn’t a run that has it squashed to southern VA and NC. That would be bad. But we know it won’t be totally accurate at 200 hours. And we know the adjustment is still usually north 60% of the time. So all jokes aside just playing the odds we want it right there at that range. I’m totally fine with it..... But we all know no matter what the 40% screw us option is what will happen every time so why bother...there @Ji took care of it for you. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm logging off. Take over the unstable role...unless you want Ji to handle it. I'm sad. And irritated. Hold me? Soft kitty warm kitty little ball of fur.... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The wave on the 28/29 is the one with the best upper support but it’s coming across a bit too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO...rather it do this then rain but models are still over the place... Doesn't that look like the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Doesn't that look like the Canadian? The Canadien Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The wave on the 28/29 is the one with the best upper support but it’s coming across a bit too far north. How do you know if coming too far north...it's 11 days away. We have no idea how any of this will turn outSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Yeoman said: The Canadien Both of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup..or a slightly stronger sw that won't get completely flattened. It looks great coming in...but then again, I guess I'm supposed to know what a model does in every panel even though we can't see it yet. This..we need that suppression bit that wave was weak sauce at the upper levels. We need a better handoff and more energy to eject across with one of those waves. The 3rd one does that but runs slightly north of where we want. Overall this run was good. That pattern was what I was looking for and would give us multiple chances next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Doesn't that look like the Canadian? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Avdave said: Thanks Dave so yes...do you have the other Canadien? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Nice to see all models agree that this is going too far south exclusive or too far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Thanks Dave so yes...do you have the other Canadien? The one that requires a stereoscope to decipher 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 I’ll take half and share other half with my northern neighbors if we can lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Thanks Dave so yes...do you have the other Canadien? I am the other Canadien. I think you just need me to move back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 The good news is we can start using the other thread tomorrow to talk about this threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There is so much suppression that literally nothing can hold together or climb north at all. The same thing that is eliminating cutters is also eliminating everything else. We have to get some relaxation in that confluence. Yet folks have been concerned about our "good" period devolving into multiple cutters. lol GFS. Chances are better that these waves end up dampening/getting shoved too far south, as has been the tendency for awhile now. You would think one of them would finally be a flush hit though. WDI and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Avdave said: I am the other Canadien. I think you just need me to move back Wait is this Avaition Dave? Holy cow haven’t seen you post in forever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Wait is this Avaition Dave? Holy cow haven’t seen you post in forever Yeah it is me, I live in NC now, moved here in 2016, I miss Leesburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, Ji said: How do you know if coming too far north...it's 11 days away. We have no idea how any of this will turn out Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk On this run...but just from a longwave pattern POV that’s the most likely time period to get a more amped storm to the east coast. I have no idea what the details will be. Probably some convoluted progression that screws us bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Avdave said: Yeah it is me, I live in NC now, moved here in 2016, I miss Leesburg Thanks Dave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts