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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, frd said:

 

On the mark, I know some don't want to hear this,  but the base state shift, combined with warmer waters , elevated jet , hyper West Pac warm pool , very warm temps in the summer and Fall at higher latitudes all seem to be causing this issue in my opinion.  Maybe we here in the East at a mid latitude are at a greater disadvantage because of our location downstream of the Pac and the proximity of the warming Atlantic .

It’s not just us, it’s the whole damn continent. The winter temperature anomalies (at least as of when I last saw them, probably like 7-10 days ago) were very Nino-ish. Warm Canada and northern US, slightly cool southern US due to an active southern storm track. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

It’s not just us, it’s the whole damn continent. The winter temperature anomalies (at least as of when I last saw them, probably like 7-10 days ago) were very Nino-ish. Warm Canada and northern US, slightly cool southern US due to an active southern storm track. 

Yes, that is true and very concerning. I believe the warmest year last year, or a tie, per Ryan.

Also, the Atlantic ocean temps are very warm, ponding the power of hurricanes this summer as some studies show recurves getting closer and closer to the major cities on the East Coast. . 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

 

On the mark, I know some don't want to hear this,  but the base state shift, combined with warmer waters , elevated jet , hyper West Pac warm pool , very warm temps in the summer and Fall at higher latitudes all seem to be causing this issue in my opinion.  Maybe we here in the East at a mid latitude are at a greater disadvantage because of our location downstream of the Pac and the proximity of the warming Atlantic .

Haven't seen it mentioned much lately, but I think a lot of the blame for that this year falls on the SSW. I remember discussion about how it would be very problematic if the cold dump was on the other side of the pole. Well, it was. Which doesn't leave much to tap into on this side. Which is what we've been seeing. 

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Distilling down our issues this winter seem two fold to me. First, the northern stream has been extremely uncooperative. Either it’s suppressive, or it has phased with the southern stream in a poor position, or (as possibly in the case for next weekend) it fosters ridging ahead of a southern stream low. Now this is not that strange in a Nina, but usually something works out despite that base hostility. Second, the obvious thing is just the utter and shocking lack of cold air. 6z GEFS, as an example, has like 2 days below normal through D15 (this weekend, and we’re talking like 3-5F BN). Remember when this was starting a BN period? There’s just no cold air around. It’s pretty scary and disconcerting how incessantly warm it’s been.

This has been very noticeable.  As a runner I still haven't had to put on more than a base layer/t shirt combo for a run.   I haven't even been wearing a hat!  Usually in January I have to bundle up at least a few times.  What's the coldest temp at DCA this season?  Like mid 20s or something pathetic like that?

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

This has been very noticeable.  As a runner I still haven't had to put on more than a base layer/t shirt combo for a run.   I haven't even been wearing a hat!  Usually in January I have to bundle up at least a few times.  What's the coldest temp at DCA this season?  Like mid 20s or something pathetic like that?

23F if I'm not mistaken.

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38 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Haven't seen it mentioned much lately, but I think a lot of the blame for that this year falls on the SSW. I remember discussion about how it would be very problematic if the cold dump was on the other side of the pole. Well, it was. Which doesn't leave much to tap into on this side. Which is what we've been seeing. 

I am not sure what to believe now really.  Isotherm said there was hope at the end of January .  February's tendencies were always to head warmer , nobody really wants to look forward to March at that time I'm thinking of spring and summer activities. 

When I look back and read HM's older  posts  I was under the assumption that he thought any sudden  stratospheric warming event would  favor our region.  but possibly I was mistaken.

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The 00UT EPS still have numerous good hits in the 8-11 day range.  The downside is that most of the ensemble members delay the start of any event until next Tuesday - about 24 hours later than the ensembles showed 2 days ago. 

For College Park, 1/3 of the members are snowless while 1/5 predict a MECS or BECS resulting in an impressive snow mean of  6-7" and a median of 4"  Hopefully, we won't end up getting the mode. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, h5 GFS is different already vs 0z/6z with the situation out west...looks like it missed the phase...which could be better?

Yea but instead of bringing the NS across ahead it stalls it out west and pumps the ridge anyways on top of the unphased southern wave. Still not the progression we want. But I suppose a baby step towards a better idea. 

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35 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

This has been very noticeable.  As a runner I still haven't had to put on more than a base layer/t shirt combo for a run.   I haven't even been wearing a hat!  Usually in January I have to bundle up at least a few times.  What's the coldest temp at DCA this season?  Like mid 20s or something pathetic like that?

I've bottomed out at 23 degrees - at least that's the lowest I've seen.  don't have a max/min.

The 00 EPS does show below normal high temperatures for a 9 day period beginning next Saturday. 

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

The more we do this the more Weather53 looks less crazy....relatively speaking of course

Actually, I agree.   I (respectfully) disagree with him wrt modeling...but the yo-yo ing is annoying, but understandable.   These things are run 4x per day, so they look as if they are waffling  way more than usual. 

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