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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

“Loving that look last few days of January into early Feb. Thats the period that holds the most potential the entire season once things slow down and relax. Until then we are playing with fire with the NS shred factory“

 

you all literally keep moving this period back. That’s a really bad sign.

I still think the waves the 24-30 have potential. But it’s also true we do better as blocking relaxes and we may be anxious and so jumping the gun. We might need to wait for the flow to relax. 

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23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to 

“watch the period starting on the tenth”

”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs”

”the period around the 20th is ripe”

”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th”

and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe.

larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal.

this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles...

hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving.

also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell...

Let me just point out one issue with this post: You identified Ralph along with what you refer to as “really good posters.”

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26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to 

“watch the period starting on the tenth”

”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs”

”the period around the 20th is ripe”

”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th”

and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe.

larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal.

this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles...

hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving.

also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell...

The first flex of the NAO failed.  That’s over and done. We had a great -NAO but there was no cold in the pattern. We wasted it. So all those calls were wrong. Now we’re tracking the next round of blocking. There looks to be more cold this time. Or would you prefer we just pack it in and go home because the last one failed?

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47 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to 

“watch the period starting on the tenth”

”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs”

”the period around the 20th is ripe”

”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th”

and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe.

larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal.

this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles...

hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving.

also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell...

Also to piggy back the Pacific has now ruined our winters now for the past few years with overwhelming our entire North American Continent with relative warmth no matter the state of El Niño or La Niña states.  Could it be our warming Earth?  Could it be dumping worldwide warmth into our oceans which is changing the overall climate system?  It takes longer to warm the oceans and cool them down hence winters in some areas are shorter and shorter windows to produce what we want snow!  I have honestly not seen too many times where you have a -epo, -ao, -Nao and can’t find cold air??  Temperature wise we are above normal for January again.  Just frustrating to see nothing even in a suppose good look that the Pacific overwhelms anyway.  Now that I said all of this it will snow lol? 

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6z gfs wasn’t that bad. Speed the NS up or slow it down and it was close to a better solution. This NS wave(1) which keeps changing every run suppressed the flow in front. Get it out of the way and the next one (3) can dig in. Slow it and get it behind the southern wave (2) and it would phase. Just need that to adjust.  It actually ejected a healthy wave that run. 
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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The first flex of the NAO failed.  That’s over and done. We had a great -NAO but there was no cold in the pattern. We wasted it. So all those calls were wrong. Now we’re tracking the next round of blocking. There looks to be more cold this time. Or would you prefer we just pack it in and go home because the last one failed?

Where did I say that? 
 

you guys get so weird about this. I am not blaming you or anyone for lack of snow. I am noting that we have been in a moving 30 day window for almost 30 days now. I said I hope this finally draws closer in time but I am now firmly skeptical. You are not responsible to make it snow, nor is CAPE or Ralph or wentz. The analysis has been good. Just more me noting the length the snow payoff has now drifted sideways . And that it may indeed keep slipping sideways.

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