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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Of course I like to see that but I have seen that map SO MANY times this winter.  It's remarkable in fact how many times models have spit out a very similar map to this.  DC on the southern end of a big pink snowfall distribution.  I'm going to have nightmares about this map for many seasons to come. 

Yesterdays event was so odd even up here in NE Philly. I got like 3-4" and then crust, but I drove 15-20 minutes up route 1 here to my grandmothers who got close to 9-10" 

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Obviously the two you want in your corner when the chips are down.

If there's one thing we excel at, it's getting cold air in place just hours before a late-winter storm when the previous days have highs near 60F.  #LockItIn

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So we've got the euro taking next Friday's snow south, GFS getting some snow in here before petering out, Para with dry cold, CMC with a harrowing R/S line through DC, and ICON with a flush hit. Honestly, a week out, not the worst signal for the possibility of something maybe lurking. If it survives the weekend, it'll be worth talking more in depth about. For now though it does not exist in my expectations.

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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Too bad we’re not in the Northeast...

:yikes:

His primary forecast area is Philly which averages like 1” more then Baltimore and half what I do. People in here act like there is some huge sudden wall that divides snow climo between DC and Philly but in reality it’s a gradual thing up the coastal plain. Baltimore does marginally better then DC and Philly marginally better then Baltimore. Once you get to northern NJ is where you hit a sharper change in snow climo.  The bigger divide in snow climo in the mid Atlantic is elevation dependent running NW of the cities. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

His primary forecast area is Philly which averages like 1” more then Baltimore and half what I do. People in here act like there is some huge sudden wall that divides snow climo between DC and Philly but in reality it’s a gradual thing up the coastal plain. Baltimore does marginally better then DC and Philly marginally better then Baltimore. Once you get to northern NJ is where you hit a sharper change in snow climo.  The bigger divide in snow climo in the mid Atlantic is elevation dependent running NW of the cities. 

Historically. Yes. Last few years. Definitely no. Which has created a perception.

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

His primary forecast area is Philly which averages like 1” more then Baltimore and half what I do. People in here act like there is some huge sudden wall that divides snow climo between DC and Philly but in reality it’s a gradual thing up the coastal plain. Baltimore does marginally better then DC and Philly marginally better then Baltimore. Once you get to northern NJ is where you hit a sharper change in snow climo.  The bigger divide in snow climo in the mid Atlantic is elevation dependent running NW of the cities. 

You took my post a little too seriously.

Like you, I grew up in South Jersey, so I’m very well aware of the climo up there.

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