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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC.  It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least.  But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here).  Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that.  Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years.   I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room. 

I think your idea of the lack of a temperature gradient plays into it too. Whether it's the PAC torch lingering from November or warm SSTs in the Atlantic, we really haven't had much of a major fluctuation in temperatures. No temps in the 60s whatsoever (not many days peaking over 50 either), but not many subfreezing highs either. The entire period from Jan 15 to Feb 15 was basically as climo as you could manage in a winter. Now that we actually have a major temp gradient into the country now, we're finding ourselves in a potential snowy setup in a rather imperfect pattern. 

 

This is closer to banter/speculation now, but I've wondered how the major loss of snowpack plays into things too. Not as of recently, but with how rapidly the Dec 16-17 snowpack melted off with the Christmas Eve deluge. That basically wiped the 30"+ snowpack away for the areas that got that big of a snowfall. Those same areas would've gotten a snowpack efresher with the Jan 3 system, but I just remember the potential pattern change being delayed shortly after the rainstorm came into range with it being modeled to erase that snowpack. Im not too informed on how that would've impacted January, and I imagine it wouldn't have done much, but surely losing that square mileage of snowpack factored into the lack of any major temperature gradient in the Eastern US.

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18 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z PARA...more chances ahead!?

The PARA is useless, that goes along with all the snowfall maps beyond 1 minute in the future. 

PARA always too snowy. Correct .0001 % of the time.  

As for future chances, we couldn't even score a snow event when the entire country is in the deep freeze. 

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8 minutes ago, frd said:

The PARA is useless, that goes along with all the snowfall maps beyond 1 minute in the future. 

PARA always too snowy. Correct .0001 % of the time.  

As for future chances, we couldn't even score a snow event when the entire country is in the deep freeze. 

EURO has it too...don’t give up quite yet...

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1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

Completely trustworthy.... didn't the Para give us 4-8" today?  

Yes it did, some areas much more. I can't tell you when the PARA has scored a win. 

As for the EPS.  it has not done well with snow totals in the short range, and in the medium range, heck, even it's precip totals have been off.  

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14 minutes ago, frd said:

Yes it did, some areas much more. I can't tell you when the PARA has scored a win. 

As for the EPS.  it has not done well with snow totals in the short range, and in the medium range, heck, even it's precip totals have been off.  

the EPS is like the old NAM. Take whatever it gives you and divide it in half...and then cut that in half again on the 6z run before gametime

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