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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Regardless of if the NAM gets it done or not, we know that far western track is probably wrong since it's going toward the other models

NAM'ped effect. I like everything I see today. It's fair to be skeptical of the juiced up solutions. Still in the range where models have consistently overdone QPF. In the grand scheme we only care how juicy the front side is tho. 2 tenths per hour QPF may not verify but it should come in like a wall this time around. 

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

NAM is the ice storm we do not want. Still on its own I think, but not where we want it! We need the  consensus.. we do not have  it yet!

 

It’s really not much of anything. The bulk of the precip is shoved so far N and W it misses most of this sub before temps rise.

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My guess is the 12z globals are prob too snowy and the NAM is prob too nammy so middle of the road is where my head is at. Seems very unlikely all globals + ens are very wrong with the front side and also seems unlikely the NAM is very right with the NW push. Anything is possible but the difference isnt small and it's still the NAM beyond 48. We'll see how the rest of 18z looks.

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Just now, high risk said:

      I think that we should be all be spooked at least a little, but it's just so darned different from pretty much everything else that I'm still going with "synoptic outlier".  

Yeah, that's where I am.  It's nagging to be sure, but I'm not going to freak out.  NAM's got plenty of time to get it together.  Guess we'll see if the other 18z now.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My guess is the 12z globals are prob too snowy and the NAM is prob too nammy so middle of the road is where my head is at. Seems very unlikely all globals + ens are very wrong with the front side and also seems unlikely the NAM is very right with the NW push. Anything is possible but the difference isnt small and it's still the NAM beyond 48. We'll see how the rest of 18z looks.

Probably best to just expect a typical late Feb mediocre setup slopstorm and anything better than that is gravy.  It is what it is.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, that's where I am.  It's nagging to be sure, but I'm not going to freak out.  NAM's got plenty of time to get it together.  Guess we'll see if the other 18z now.

we havent had consensus for anything all year but the least snowy solution has typically won out. this sucks

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

we havent had consensus for anything all year but the least snowy solution has typically won out. this sucks

Thru 48, it was much better in the mids. That's where I stop believing the nam. Especially in the face of overwhelming guidance to the contrary with the storm itself. There are times to freak out on the NAM. For me, this isnt even close to one of them. Now if all of 18z goes that way, I'll see ya next winter

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