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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Anybody else think it is suspicious that this EHoffman guy shows up magically to take all the heat off of PSUHoffman just when he was defending himself from his NAM related concerns?

 

In all seriousness, the trends have been good for the last 24 hours or so on the models wrt both track and thermals, even for down here in Augusta County.  Let's weather will this thing home!

 

hofmeme.jpg

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28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I posted the wrong euro h5 panel in my OP (0z instead of 12z) but it doesnt change the point I was trying to make. Compare today's 12z @ hr60 to a string of previous runs. It's pretty sweet to look at and literally a small miracle we're possibly backing into an ok event here. 

Is it too simplistic to say that on future runs, the strength of that little bubble up there is what we need to focus on?

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Just now, Quasievil said:

I feel like we've been through this song and dance a few times already this year. What makes this one different? 

Hopefully what makes it different is it won't start trending away from us in the next 24-48 hours!  The last disaster was supposed to be a Wed-Fri event and the Euro/EPS was showing 8-12 inches for us as late as Monday before the event before it started trending to crap.  

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1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

I feel like we've been through this song and dance a few times already this year. What makes this one different? 

We're backing into something decent this time as the short range takes over where the starting point was an epic disaster. All the other ones worked the exact opposite. I mean sure, who doesnt think it can easily epically fail but even if it does it was very different than our other fails 

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Jma loves us so much it's sending us a heart shaped front end dump. Looks good honestly. Like the other globals except the heavies during the good column are NW of the euro/para/ukie. Not that it matters yet. It's a good run that looks right in the pocket of the other good runs at 12z

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_06/GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif

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2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 700 mb is colder throughout Th  6Z v 12Z

F4683CAB-19F1-43B3-A73E-AC1E7F1AAAE1.png

0E783FE8-5C17-4924-8F44-B59A34759A8D.png

I realize this is a little late, but I thought this was a pretty impressive (and potentially quite significant) run-over-run change. Would LOVE to see this continue at 18z.

Liking what seems to be a little better confluence on the NAM early on.

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Just now, mattie g said:

I realize this is a little late, but I thought this was a pretty impressive (and potentially quite significant) run-over-run change. would LOVE to see this continue at 18z.

Liking what seems to be a little better confluence on the NAM early on.

Yup, it's colder at 850 across the entire area even back through Erie (-10 now versus -7 previous run) and up through Philly. Good to see.

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