Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Euro just caused me a huge problem. I disrobed at hr78 but that's normal. Then someone knocked on my door and forgot I had no clothes on. Waiting for arraignment. If I need money for bail I'll post a gofundme link later 3 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Ji said: its also kind of fringed. I like the south trend but we need to stop the bleeding a bit? 1:30pm on Monday and we officially have our first "stop the south trend, we're going to get fringed" concern post. I love it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Never gets above freezing during the event, might actually be pretty much all snow verbatim. 12+ up this way? Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: its also kind of fringed. I like the south trend but we need to stop the bleeding a bit? Juice it up just a touch and keep it right where it is now and we're good. Hopefully no BS last minute drastic changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: 1:30pm on Monday and we officially have our first "stop the south trend, we're going to get fringed" concern post. I love it. Oh you haven't seen nothing yet. Wait until PSU gets in this mofo. This is how we know we're all gonna get a good storm, including him. When he starts fretting about being fringed, get out the shovels 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, HighStakes said: Juice it up just a touch and keep it right where it is now and we're good. Hopefully no BS last minute drastic changes. Not saying it happens with this one, maybe the confluence will just win out but there has been somewhat of a trend to suppress things (get it to go south) in the 48-84 hour ranges and then the inevitable north shift in the 24 hours to gametime frame...just something to think about is all, I mean most of us would probably still be good for a thump even if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Singles digit lows sunday morning. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, EHoffman said: 1:30pm on Monday and we officially have our first "stop the south trend, we're going to get fringed" concern post. I love it. But also, this you bruh? 3 hours ago, EHoffman said: Writing on the wall already for this one...has the making of a classic wet snow that doesn't accumulate to brief sleet to rain for DC. I've seen this storm many times before. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: its also kind of fringed. I like the south trend but we need to stop the bleeding a bit? Little more south might be good. Not biased or anything 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro just caused me a huge problem. I disrobed at hr78 but that's normal. Then someone knocked on my door and forgot I had no clothes on. Waiting for arraignment. If I need money for bail I'll post a gofundme link later I’ll definitely contribute, BC. I understand that Panic Room complex residents get extra time stay chits for the same behavior. The Reaper is much more progressive..as always ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: But also, this you bruh? Yeah it is me, and I'm 1000000% still expecting that. I have like 40" of day 3 Euro snow this season. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Not saying it happens with this one, maybe the confluence will just win out but there has been somewhat of a trend to suppress things (get it to go south) in the 48-84 hour ranges and then the inevitable north shift in the 24 hours to gametime frame...just something to think about is all, I mean most of us would probably still be good for a thump even if that happens The positive is there is really good model consensus for a good thump and right now most areas have some wiggle room. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 If we can get a nice 6-8” thump before sleet and a dry slot, that’s the ultimate outcome with a storm tracking over us or to our west. Can’t ask for much better than that in our area in this type of setup. Man… Just imagine we could somehow get the SLP / the 850 low to track to our south. This would be a monster. Afraid we’re too close for that drastic of a trend but damn, it’d be nice. Whoever stays all snow just NW of the fall line is going to get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 If anyone looks at this h5 panel and thinks suppression is even a remote concern, they need to kick themselves square in the nutz 2 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: If we can get a nice 6-8” thump before sleet and a dry slot, that’s the ultimate outcome with a storm tracking over us or to our west. Can’t ask for much better than that in our area in this type of setup. Man… Just imagine we could somehow get the SLP / the 850 low to track to our south. This would be a monster. Afraid we’re too close for that drastic of a trend but damn, it’d be nice. Whoever stays all snow just NW of the fall line is going to get destroyed. You want a little freezing rain. Or at least I do. That’s gives you the concrete on top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: If anyone looks at this h5 panel and thinks suppression is even a remote concern, they need to kick themselves square in the nutz How on Earth is that snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 If we can get a nice 6-8” thump before sleet and a dry slot, that’s the ultimate outcome with a storm tracking over us or to our west. Can’t ask for much better than that in our area in this type of setup. Man… Just imagine we could somehow get the SLP / the 850 low to track to our south. This would be a monster. Afraid we’re too close for that drastic of a trend but damn, it’d be nice. Whoever stays all snow just NW of the fall line is going to get destroyed. Plenty of time for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 H5’s change . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Plenty of time for this . You think? I haven’t been able to do to much in the way of tracking outside of checking in on this thread because of a busy work schedule. How far west does the UKMET/PARA/Euro currently track the SLP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: How on Earth is that snow? See the flat h5 isobars over new england? That's blocking high pressure from running away and the antecedent airmass is plenty cold for a time. 3 days ago it was a ridge highway for cold to run away faster than Usain Bolt. Even with "above normal heights", the starting point with temps prior is below normal and fairly deep cold to our north to boot. The crux of our problem (easily escaping cold high pressure) has morphed into something different. It's still a deep trough too far west and not enough blocking to keep the entire thing south of us. When CPA and NYC are bone dry on models we can worry about suppression. I see no way for that to happen in just 3 days tho 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If anyone looks at this h5 panel and thinks suppression is even a remote concern, they need to kick themselves square in the nutz Done and done. Ooph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Here's the 0z euro from the 13th. Just a few days ago. Not a damn thing in the way to hold the cold from hightailing it to the arctic circle. That "sneaky" little closed ULL to our north is practically 100% responsible for the shift towards good fortunes. We often get fooked by sneaky features. This time we needed one desperately and we got tossed a bone. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: Itty bitty bit of gray on that map far NE part of GA. SC fringed. People down there are raging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I posted the wrong euro h5 panel in my OP (0z instead of 12z) but it doesnt change the point I was trying to make. Compare today's 12z @ hr60 to a string of previous runs. It's pretty sweet to look at and literally a small miracle we're possibly backing into an ok event here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I posted the wrong euro h5 panel in my OP (0z instead of 12z) but it doesnt change the point I was trying to make. Compare today's 12z @ hr60 to a string of previous runs. It's pretty sweet to look at and literally a small miracle we're possibly backing into an ok event here. Noob. Old Bob Chill would never make that mistake 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I posted the wrong euro h5 panel in my OP (0z instead of 12z) but it doesnt change the point I was trying to make. Compare today's 12z @ hr60 to a string of previous runs. It's pretty sweet to look at and literally a small miracle we're possibly backing into an ok event here. So post the right one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Anybody else think it is suspicious that this EHoffman guy shows up magically to take all the heat off of PSUHoffman just when he was defending himself from his NAM related concerns? In all seriousness, the trends have been good for the last 24 hours or so on the models wrt both track and thermals, even for down here in Augusta County. Let's weather will this thing home! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 PSU is going to have another nice GIF trend for the EPS snowfall mean from 0z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Okay I've been pulled back in. The threat can start deteriorating now. 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: So post the right one. “Could you post the one you were talking about please?” I feel like this would have worked. Idk maybe it’s just me. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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