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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, Round Hill WX said:

Very nice 700MB advection/frontogenesis in the right quad exit region of the jet on the 12z GFS. Explains the heavy burst graphically.

 

Great post. The beauty of getting just a little help from compressed flow to our north is it creates a heavy lifting zone as deep moisture streams in. Won't be 10:1 or greater ratios (imo only) but it could literally snow it's eyeballs out for a time like we havent seen yet this year. I'm going to be skeptical af until it's happening. Nice to see legit mid level fronto as deep moisture is already overhead. Not bad. Not bad at all

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Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It's a pretty substantial run to run shift comparing 12z to 00z.  

 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, euro is likely going to add a few miles to the wiggle room cache. Me likey fo sho

I was kinda joking earlier about suppression but if we keep going at this rate.....:lol:

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10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

I was kinda joking earlier about suppression but if we keep going at this rate.....:lol:

Imo only attm but the best case scenario in my mind is the proverbial thump to dryslot with 75%+ snowfall for all (or 100% in psu's yard). Ccb/deform/backside aint happenin (nude jumping jacks if i bust on this). Love the 12z global suite tho. I guess getting it backwards is helping. Meaning we went from despair/rain towards potentially real snow this time. Opposite of everything I've tracked since coming back

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Imo only attm but the best case scenario in my mind is the proverbial thump to dryslot with 75%+ snowfall for all (or 100% in psu's yard). Ccb/deform/backside aint happenin. Love the 12z global suite tho. I guess getting it backwards is helping. Meaning we went from despair/rain towards potentially real snow this time. Opposite of everything I've tracked since coming back

this might be the first time since Feb 2015 ive seen a cutter trend into a monster snow for us lol

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