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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Just curious, but is there any correlation from winter to winter regarding the nao?  Specifically, does a negative nao this winter diminish our chances of one next year? If the Pacific had been in a better state this year, we probably would have done better, especially earlier in the winter, right? 

What I’m getting at in a roundabout way is that I think the Pacific will look better next year. What are our chances of a -nao to go with it?

No expert whatsoever, but I believe 2010-2011 featured blocking, especially earlier on in the year (someone please correct me if I'm wrong) - so a "continuation" of the blocking we saw the previous year. Of course, our general base state recently seems to have been +NAO, so who knows.

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Just curious, but is there any correlation from winter to winter regarding the nao?  Specifically, does a negative nao this winter diminish our chances of one next year? If the Pacific had been in a better state this year, we probably would have done better, especially earlier in the winter, right? 

What I’m getting at in a roundabout way is that I think the Pacific will look better next year. What are our chances of a -nao to go with it?

Other than some esoteric and probably unproven correlations, the NAO is notoriously difficult to predict at long leads. There is a definite correlation to the AO state, and it tends to happen more in Ninos (I think), but beyond that it is tough to call. It has definitely been more persistently in the positive phase during winter over the last 50 years. Maybe that trend is about to shift.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro is a disaster for This weekend. Cant belive the model changed by 600 miles from 120 hours to 96. this would never happen if it was a great lakes cutter

Just a few tweaks from 12z yesterday.

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-2688400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-2688400_2.png

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24 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'll also add that I don't get why people are so mad we aren't getting teens and low 20's for highs. If we want to roll with 2013-2014 for the next month and a half or so, sure, that's cool. But most likely, it will just be freezing cold and dry as a bone.

You willing to stick to that prediction? Lol

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

       several of us on the previous two pages in this thread.   :P

I meant from the Euro.   

The GFS and this morning's EPS went to that.  I just didn't believe it.   

Honestly was hoping not to see that on this afternoon's run. I am still recovering from the  weekend. :cliff:

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8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I can't find the tweet I saw so take this with a large grain of salt but I'm pretty sure the Para had pretty solid verification scores for this past storm.

   FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week.    Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple):

acc_valid00Z_HGT_P500_fhr120_G002NHX.thumb.png.055333baeaa18c78f9aded8c0274c5cd.png

     That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week.    Definitely encouraging, though!

      EDIT:   to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable.   Perhaps that will be changing....

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11 minutes ago, high risk said:

   FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week.    Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple):

acc_valid00Z_HGT_P500_fhr120_G002NHX.thumb.png.055333baeaa18c78f9aded8c0274c5cd.png

     That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week.    Definitely encouraging, though!

      EDIT:   to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable.   Perhaps that will be changing....

It is worrisome that the model intended to replace the GFS has been scoring lower than the GFS for most of that graph!

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5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

It is worrisome that the model intended to replace the GFS has been scoring lower than the GFS for most of that graph!

       Fair, although if you look at the composite numbers at the bottom of that image, it's a tie over the past 30 days.    And GFSv16 scored better than GFSv15 throughout most of the retrospective runs.     Tons of great info here:   https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gfsv16/

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