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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, gymengineer said:

The way I am thinking about Thursday is these snow to sleet to freezing rain (to rain or dryslot) events happen with some regularity in our area. We often do fine on the front end thump for 2-4” for DC metro. Sometimes we get a pleasant overperformer like 12/14/03 or 2/25/07 where it’s more like 4-5”. Maybe the best all-time would be 2/21/05 where I received 7+” in North Bethesda and upper MoCo hit a foot. What the GFS is putting out for the first 12-hrs of QPF is very anomalous... in that all-time category type of way. I hope it verifies for sure, but I would be satisfied with a more typical event. 

Your dives into history are awesome. I love it as I cant drill down to the level of detail you do with memory. That said, if thurs isnt a carbon copy of the Feb 2014 all snow west track, it's an abject failure. Dont lose sight of ingrained irrationality and foolishness here. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If not now, definitely later. If not later, this place will become a padded room. Not sure what outcome I really want to see... hmmm... decisions...

Randy said I couldn't leave him this week, so I will have to vote for the non-padded room version to keep my sanity. 

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Warnings make it snow more

thats what I hear. 

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But again, the factually correct post that you gave a weenie to stands.  Yes, the NAM has had the hot hand and with other storms, it was the first to show things falling apart.  But in every case, it was a follow the leader thing, all the others models started to cave to it.   That's not happening this time.  NAM is alone.   Now if the Euro goes west, then year, that's when I worry.  

I don;t like having the NAM on board either, but I don't think it's time for the whoa is me posts quite yet, because this isn't the same as before.    Still time to go that way tho.

Make no mistake, when we get our 5" on Thursday I'm finding where you live and throwing a snowball at you.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Your dives into history are awesome. I love it as I cant drill down to the level of detail you do with memory. That said, if thurs isnt a carbon copy of the Feb 2014 all snow west track, it's an abject failure. Dont lose sight of ingrained irrationality and foolishness here. 

Your quote let me see the typo I had in the original post- 2/21/15, not 2005. That’s the event you are referring to as well, I believe. One of the best day-of overperformers of all time. We were staring at the sleet line just not advance on the CC loop while it was hours of  heavier than modeled snow accumulating during peak sun angle hours. 

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11 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

NAM's been holding steady with the warmer idea tho for several runs now...it's been great this year particularly at picking up trends at this range, so why wouldn't I put tons of stock into it ESPECIALLY when it aligns with DC climo.  Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.

Haha I'm not actually offended, you guys have great analysis which I why I keep coming back after posting on these boards with you goons for 15 years.

Generally speaking I AGREE with you. But your writing off of a non-marginal surface temp event as if it's a 33 and white rain event is kind of puzzling. BUT - at least you then backed it up with saying you thought the models were too cold. So I'm not battling you here - we are allowed to have different opinions. That said - the "climo" of NW DC is NOT at all the same as the tarmac at DCA. Ice storms are rare for the entire area - not just downtown Washington. 

Look how narrow the corridor of sig ice (significant enough to do extensive power outage stuff) was in this past event. It wasn't narrow because of DC climo - it was narrow because the areas where FZRA falls and matches up really well with the rest of the factors is always relatively narrow. 

Conservative is always good for DC snow. But you're also writing off the mixed nature of the event as well. I think it's totally possible the warm nose is closer to the NAM and we get sleeted to hell. But sleet can be even more impactful than snow. I'm not sold on "meh wet roads"

I remember you back on Eastern - always thought you were a solid poster if memory is correct. I don't think you're not now - but you just went perhaps too far in the "meh we are DC" direction. Sometimes we've gotta actually forecast! 

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1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

Your quote let me see the typo I had in the original post- 2/21/15, not 2005. That’s the event you are referring to as well, I believe. One of the best day-of overperformers of all time. We were staring at the sleet line just not advance on the CC loop while it was hours of  heavier than modeled snow accumulating during peak sun angle hours. 

Snow will accumulate during daylight hours much better if there's just the slightest base formed overnight. I believe that's what happened if I recall.

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Generally speaking I AGREE with you. But your writing off of a non-marginal surface temp event as if it's a 33 and white rain event is kind of puzzling. BUT - at least you then backed it up with saying you thought the models were too cold. So I'm not battling you here - we are allowed to have different opinions. That said - the "climo" of NW DC is NOT at all the same as the tarmac at DCA. Ice storms are rare for the entire area - not just downtown Washington. 

Look how narrow the corridor of sig ice (significant enough to do extensive power outage stuff) was in this past event. It wasn't narrow because of DC climo - it was narrow because the areas where FZRA falls and matches up really well with the rest of the factors is always relatively narrow. 

Conservative is always good for DC snow. But you're also writing off the mixed nature of the event as well. I think it's totally possible the warm nose is closer to the NAM and we get sleeted to hell. But sleet can be even more impactful than snow. I'm not sold on "meh wet roads"

I remember you back on Eastern - always thought you were a solid poster if memory is correct. I don't think you're not now - but you just went perhaps too far in the "meh we are DC" direction. Sometimes we've gotta actually forecast! 

Your memory probably isn't correct, I've never been a solid poster. 

That said, I agree where you're coming from and it's certainly an intriguing event.  And the globals are certainly looking awesome.  I just try to factor in DC climo and try to keep in mind we've had literally every storm go to shit for us <48 hrs from game time and I'm trying to keep a level head and not get overly excited.  Definitely one of those storms where I won't believe it until it's actually happening.

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