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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Man, the latest GFS-v16 is a great storm for us a solid thump followed by sleet and then ice but never goes above freezing before the precip moves out then an artic blast a day later to keep the snow around on the ground instead of melting. I would take that in a heartbeat doubt it happens though.  

Odd, local news has everything as rain.

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1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Damn I really triggered a lot of people in this here thread, I promise I won't boast much when we're pouring sleet after an inch of wet snow.

Not triggered, just smh at how weird you got over one run.   You can boast.  It's always easier to be a whining,  shit posting debbie downer here, that's for sure.

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1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

I feel personally attacked, how is stating DC climo being an issue not realistic?!

It does sometimes snow in DC...yeah, Its a lot harder than folks to the NW, but it happens...If it goes to crap it goes to crap, but as modeled its a nice snow thump for even DC right now...yeah its the future, it hasnt happened but its all the data we have to go off of

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1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

I feel personally attacked, how is stating DC climo being an issue not realistic?!

We love to hand wring and gang up around here. It's therapeutic. Nothing personal whatsoever honestly. The only cure is a legit winter event. I suggest getting some shoulder pads and a helmet here shortly

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not triggered, just smh at how weird you got over one run.   You can boast.  It's always easier to be a whining,  shit posting debbie downer here, that's for sure.

NAM's been holding steady with the warmer idea tho for several runs now...it's been great this year particularly at picking up trends at this range, so why wouldn't I put tons of stock into it ESPECIALLY when it aligns with DC climo.  Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

We love to hand wring and gang up around here. It's therapeutic. Nothing personal whatsoever honestly. The only cure is a legit winter event. I suggest getting some shoulder pads and a helmet here shortly

Haha I'm not actually offended, you guys have great analysis which I why I keep coming back after posting on these boards with you goons for 15 years.

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7 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Damn I really triggered a lot of people in this here thread, I promise I won't boast much when we're pouring sleet after an inch of wet snow.

I think you might misunderstand the purpose of this thread, it's not to predict the most reasonable outcome, it is (mostly) to fantasize and enjoy the model runs, truthfully. I think most of us are here to have fun, and even if we know the most realistic outcome is not what the para is showing and is more like your inch of snow/sleet mix, we don't want to hear it repeated ad infinitum.  We want to hope for something better!

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1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

NAM's been holding steady with the warmer idea tho for several runs now...it's been great this year particularly at picking up trends at this range, so why wouldn't I put tons of stock into it ESPECIALLY when it aligns with DC climo.  Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.

Haha I'm not actually offended, you guys have great analysis which I why I keep coming back after posting on these boards with you goons for 15 years.

But again, the factually correct post that you gave a weenie to stands.  Yes, the NAM has had the hot hand and with other storms, it was the first to show things falling apart.  But in every case, it was a follow the leader thing, all the others models started to cave to it.   That's not happening this time.  NAM is alone.   Now if the Euro goes west, then year, that's when I worry.  

I don;t like having the NAM on board either, but I don't think it's time for the whoa is me posts quite yet, because this isn't the same as before.    Still time to go that way tho.

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12 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Damn I really triggered a lot of people in this here thread, I promise I won't boast much when we're pouring sleet after an inch of wet snow.

Can you please stop saying wet snow? You may very well get sleet, freezing rain or just plain rain but you aren’t getting wet snow.

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The way I am thinking about Thursday is these snow to sleet to freezing rain (to rain or dryslot) events happen with some regularity in our area. We often do fine on the front end thump for 2-4” for DC metro. Sometimes we get a pleasant overperformer like 12/14/03 or 2/25/07 where it’s more like 4-5”. Maybe the best all-time would be 2/21/15 where I received 7+” in North Bethesda and upper MoCo hit a foot. What the GFS is putting out for the first 12-hrs of QPF is very anomalous... in that all-time category type of way. I hope it verifies for sure, but I would be satisfied with a more typical event. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But again, the factually correct post that you gave a weenie to stands.  Yes, the NAM has had the hot hand and with other storms, it was the first to show things falling apart.  But in every case, it was a follow the leader thing, all the others models started to cave to it.   That's not happening this time.  NAM is alone.   Now if the Euro goes west, then year, that's when I worry.  

I don;t like having the NAM on board either, but I don't think it's time for the whoa is me posts quite yet, because this isn't the same as before.    Still time to go that way tho.

Whoa is me.  Hahahahahah. Woe horsey, woe

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