Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

2.6” at DCA before the changeover to ZR on 2/20/19 and 2.8” at DCA before the changeover on 2/15/16. Those performed more or less as expected and are just within the past 5 years. 

I mean yeah, it can happen for sure.  But I don't think many would be happy here with 2" on grass followed by rain.  They'd call it a fail, especially given the globals right now.  Like this storm could totally give us an inch or two before it rains, but I'd hardly call that a win or a high-impact event.  For the record I hope I'm wrong I would kill for a solid thump.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is positive to see the globals still trending better. One last point on the NAM. The reason it goes berserk with the h7 warm layer is actually something it’s doing synoptically that makes it a huge outlier. @CAPE made a great post early this morning about how the trough is strung out and the guidance focusing more on the lead wave is helping to keep the system under us. The NAM is the holy guidance not doing that. It has a more amplified but also consolidated trough and this allows it to amplify to our west. If that’s wrong the h7 warm layer will be overdone. 
 

I have no idea if it’s wrong. Preponderance of evidence would say it’s overdoing it. I’m going to go with that.  But I sure will feel more comfortable when it drops that idea and gets on board with other guidance. That is all. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Para would be the fairly common snow its eyeballs out as the sleet line is speed marching north then an earlier expected flip to sleet followed by cars being stripped to bare metal before zr in the dc area. Sounds good. I'll stick with that for now
I like bad wintet weather. This sounds like a severe storm
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I mean yeah, it can happen for sure.  But I don't think many would be happy here with 2" on grass followed by rain.  They'd call it a fail, especially given the globals right now.  Like this storm could totally give us an inch or two before it rains, but I'd hardly call that a win or a high-impact event.  For the record I hope I'm wrong I would kill for a solid thump.

Problem is digital snow maps.  I’m guilty too but trying to get better.  I think realistically us closer in right now is 1-3/2-4” to sleet then slop.  As I have seen and you stated, warm layers race quicker than progged.  The only thing, which all guidance agrees on, is the surface being mid 20s right now.  If we see it creep up in the next few days (which past storms have to some degree) then we will know where this is headed but I’m optimistic now on a dynamic even that starts as snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

That's all I'm saying though, is that historically these types of storms fail 99% of the time in DC even if we're getting slammed a few days in advance on "all the models."  Of course it's not IMPOSSIBLE we bank significantly on this, but I find it to be a major uphill battle.

Ehhh no power outages and slippery pavement that melted by the next morning.  Pretty? Sure.  High impact? In CVA and Southern VA, absolutely. Here, not so much.

I honestly think the models are too cold and we're always warmer than progged down here.

All I know is, (as a native washingtonian) you don't have to wait 50 years for mega storms. "High impact" doesn't just mean outages. It could be travel issues. Saturday an suv skidded UNDER a cement truck in front of a gas station. The truck flipped on its side, the suv went sailing two blocks and collided with another building. Was posted up i news coverage. SE DC. I couldn't get past my steps or landing because of ice. My neighborhood was a frigging skating rink...and its all hills so not fun. Ice isn't good for anything except pictures. I get it, marginal stuff is tough here because we've got a lot going on climate wise. The ocean, the mountains, hot air off the gulf. The latitude. So, duh.

I just get tired of the inaccurate narrative about DC, as if this is an eternal tropic zone that never sees snow. I get people are frustrated looking at a zillion color maps, but all anyone has to do is look up all the mega storms of the last 50 years. There's been quite a few, not counting minor events. And this 'heat island' bit could apply to any city at this latitiude. If you're talking about downtown with the heaviest traffic and concrete, ok. That's just the central core. I sometimes wonder if people ever venture out of their neighborhoods. Just sayin'. Maybe its time to just look out the window and toss all the models, I dunno.

And now, back to the mood swings over maps...

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, I come in see the NAM and it;s mass suicides up in here.   YES, NAM has been great and sniffing out trends.  But EVERY SINGLE TIME it did, the other models began to trend toward it.  In all cases.   This time, nothing is even close to it.  Does that mean it's wrong? No, but let's stop acting like this is the same situation.  It's not.  Nobody is trending toward the NAM as with all the other storms.

  • Like 6
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Ji said:
8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Para would be the fairly common snow its eyeballs out as the sleet line is speed marching north then an earlier expected flip to sleet followed by cars being stripped to bare metal before zr in the dc area. Sounds good. I'll stick with that for now

I like bad wintet weather. This sounds like a severe storm

We can almost write off an inconsequential 33+ degree rain event. That was locked and loaded 3 days ago (by mid range standards). Keep watching heights to the north and surface hp pressing south (even if 5 miles)and pray they dont start folding. Seem to both still be in beefing up stage. Make no mistake tho, there will almost surely be a stall and retreat at some point. We're in night drop deposit of wiggle room stage. Once the bank opens and starts auditing the skrizzle in the bag, we better hope we counted right.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We can almost write off an inconsequential 33+ degree rain event. That was locked and loaded 3 days ago (by mid range standards). Keep watching heights to the north and surface hp pressing south (even if 5 miles)and pray they dont start folding. Seem to both still be in beefing up stage. Make no mistake tho, there will almost surely be a stall and retreat at some point. We're in night drop deposit of wiggle room stage. Once the bank opens and starts auditing the skrizzle in the bag, we better hope we counted right.

I think I agree with this post but can you maybe write it in English?

  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Who ordered the DC version of Baltimorewx? Speak up

Hey thats not nice. I might be a deb but Im more realistic than that dude....This is looking solid for a cold thump so long as there isnt some crazy NW trend...26-28 degrees with snow falling thursday morning sign me up

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Hey thats not nice. I might be a deb but Im more realistic than that dude....This is looking solid for a cold thump so long as there isnt some crazy NW trend...26-28 degrees with snow falling thursday morning sign me up

I feel personally attacked, how is stating DC climo being an issue not realistic?!

  • Weenie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...