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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I don't think it would be mitigated by rates for at least the first 6-12 hours of the storm. It's a little chilly. :shiver:

1613660400-guI2a7U6G1g.png

I mean, its plenty cold, just going by the old rule that heavier rates aren't as "good" for accretion.  Lot of that could just run off if it's super heavy.  I dunno.  We might wanna ask one of those guys with the red tags to be sure.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I mean, its plenty cold, just going by the old rule that heavier rates aren't as "good" for accretion.  Lot of that could just run off if it's super heavy.  I dunno.  We might wanna ask one of those guys with the red tags to be sure.

Yeah, not sure what the precise interplay is between temperatures and rates for ideal accretion, when below freezing.  I'm sure the thermodynamics is a bit complicated when we start talking about those details.  Of course, if it were 15 degrees and pouring rain, that would presumably be different than, say, 31 and doing the same.

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2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, not sure what the precise interplay is between temperatures and rates for ideal accretion, when below freezing.  I'm sure the thermodynamics is a bit complicated when we start talking about those details.  Of course, if it were 15 degrees and pouring rain, that would presumably be different than, say, 31 and doing the same.

Absolutely... heavy zr at 15 would be far more efficient at accretion than heavy zr at 31.

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Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Has anyone been keeping tabs on how it ended up doing with the last few storms?  

Did pretty well with the ice storm. Showed about .3-.4 qpf consistently and handled the shortwave pretty well I thought. 

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9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know we brought up ICON but this is a snow/ice disaster.

1613736000-dmKDo1jixG4.png

that's all frozen anywhere where temps are 32 or lower here. historically bad ice storm for VA/NC/SC

1613736000-JgxNJMEiHTY.png

Yeah, temperatures stay below 30 the full duration of the storm with a ton of precip. Would be a doozy if accurate. Obviously a huge if. 

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1 minute ago, ForestHillbilly said:

Yup, that's what it's about. A beat down on a model run. Who cares about the actual snow.

 

 

What? It's 3-5 days away. Literally all you can do is talk about the model outcomes right now. I understand if your bitter that model snow has not turned into real snow in multiple cases, but you're going to get annoyed with people for posting model results in a thread that is made for doing just that? 

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

What? It's 3-5 days away. Literally all you can do is talk about the model outcomes right now. I understand if your bitter that model snow has not turned into real snow in multiple cases, but you're going to get annoyed with people for posting model results in a thread that is made for doing just that? 

Hey i posted 3 hour frames and people got there nuts tied around there necks about it lol

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