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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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41 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

CMC called that a week ago. I'm ready to end this dumpster fire anyway. 

when you still hear online weather and local weather forecasters claiming the cold air is coming or artic blast incoming. even if it was coming 20s for my area is never considered artic highs in the teens or below would be artic not 20s 

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21 minutes ago, yoda said:

lulz

06z GFS says oh you thought you were done?  Nice try... come back into my parlor with my major ice storm Monday night into Tuesday morning for all of you

Kicks out everything in one full wave instead of two this run so there is no Tue/Wed storm anymore... only the Mon/Tues storm

Yeah, in terms of ice, that run was dirty.  Mean. 

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

One thing that’s almost a lock is snow not being part of the equation.  This dusting we had is about all we are going to see. Tragic.

Realistically snow has not been on the table for a while now outside of far NW areas maybe. The late next week threat still holds some promise.

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7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think if Thursday doesn't work...then from a historical standpoint, then we might be able to call it. Not  winter has ever produced anything sizeable (that is at least 5") between February 21st-28th, and March is, well...March, lol So next week could be our last shot, I'm afraid

February 1986 had three snow events on the 22nd, 24th and 26-7th: 3.6, 3.6 and 1.8 inches respectively at DCA.

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6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Not just but the snow is a significant factor. But I have an amazing view, big property, it’s nice up here in the summer. It’s a great property to raise kids. But the snow was a part of it. I barely can tolerate the typical level of snow here...I couldn’t be happy living in DC or Baltimore. Up here I know I’m guaranteed at least some decent snow every year.  But frankly I can’t wait to move somewhere that gets like 150” a year and has snow on the ground from Thanksgiving to Easter. 

I wonder what housing prices are like on the Tug Hill Plateau.

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26 minutes ago, kgottwald said:

I wonder what housing prices are like on the Tug Hill Plateau.

Yeah, I love the DC area.  I have a job I love, so much to do around here, etc.  But when I retire I’ll be moving to somewhere snowier.  Possible places, Lake Tahoe, Alaska, Maine, Adirondacks.  Tug Hill is snowy but not a ton to do there the rest of the year. 

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Unless you're going west or just want a ski resort experience I'd go with the Keweenaw peninsula in upper peninsula of Michigan. An average of 200+ inches a year with snow on the ground for several months at a time, pretty scenery. You'd miss out on east coast storms of course.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

You don't wanna move somewhere just because they have a ton of snow. It's probably not going to workout for you. You will be bored pretty damn fast. 

Some of the best places for snow are also full of various outdoor activities that’ll keep you far from boredom. Denver and parts of NE are great examples of that. 

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Remember a week ago when the advertised h5 look for the upcoming period looked like this?

What we are actually seeing is a simple adjustment to what is more typical for a Nina. Shift the phase of the longwave pattern west and amp the SE ridge.

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_8.png

Too easy to simply attribute that to Nina though. 1. We haven’t had any SE ridge all winter...2. The Mjo is not in a typical Nina phase right now so ironically we’re getting a Nina response without Nina tropical pac forcing.  

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9 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

https://tughillrealestate.com/homes-for-sale-details/7434-CO-RT-17-BOYLSTON-NY-13083/S1314416/99/

I am working on my wife right now.. i think we are gonna buy it.

Nice little place. If you bite, you might want to consider putting in a small trap door at the roof peak for egress, in case they get one of their 120"+ single-event snowfalls.  ;)

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Too easy to simply attribute that to Nina though. 1. We haven’t had any SE ridge all winter...2. The Mjo is not in a typical Nina phase right now so ironically we’re getting a Nina response without Nina tropical pac forcing.  

The SE ridge might have been tame but the WAR has caused problems at times.

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21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The SE ridge might have been tame but the WAR has caused problems at times.

 

Have said over and over that the WAR , and the configuration of warmth is a player.  HM even stated the above average NW Atlantic SST anomaly does exist. Bluewave mentioned it had a hand in the wet period last Summer. It seems it is a major factor in keeping the Eastern Untied States warmer than normal.  Also, in the summer it may play a role in higher overnight lows and increased dew points as well. National Geographic did a  special last year on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In it it was mentioned that the periphery of the WAR when looked at over time   seems to be edging more Western and North putting the major cites of the Eastern seaboard at risk for a powerful hurricane in the years ahead.  

 

 

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