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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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17 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Here’s a model run I saved from December. I’m sure the final result was somewhat like this, but either way, Canada was def a bit different but both had similar ridging issues on EC and trough axis with main vort

 

B61BAC34-19EC-450A-90D3-66AD0DE7E27A.jpeg

4F310589-D801-46D5-8FF4-A511D8D266FC.jpeg

Yea but the main problem with December IMO was it was December.  The surface low took a perfect track but there was a ton of mid level warmth that blasted well NW.  I would take my chances on a similar setup in February.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but the main problem with December IMO was it was December.  The surface low took a perfect track but there was a ton of mid level warmth that blasted well NW.  I would take my chances on a similar setup in February.  

Oh I def agree. The low level cold is 10x better, but mid level would be a different story. Idc if it’s 0f the day before nothing stops the mid levels unless we see better vort pass and confluence 

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Just got around to seeing the Euro...Ya know, I'm beginning to look at our history as Bob suggested and adding a "is there precedent" approach to modeling and such. Has there ever been a storm that did what the Euro just did? (though not as bad as 0z) HP in that location that strong...and just freezing rain and sleet? Lol And heck, is there even precedent this season? I mean...you're telling me the blocking would break down to that extent just at that time? Uh...

(sorry for the mini-rant...just a bit annoyed because I see next week as our best shot at a BECS or bigger if we can get it under us...best shot we've had in 5 years, imo)

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Just wanted to pop in as a former mid-Atlantic person (PG county MD and Powhatan VA for a total of 10 years) and say I'm pulling for one of these to be a big hitter for you guys. So many chances, I feel like one of them is going to break your way.

This is still the sub-forum I come to for long range discussions - best info on all the boards right here IMO.

Good luck!

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50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

A 1007 low just kicked a 1040 high in the balls and said get out of my way.

The SE ridge is the only feature of this  storm that  immobile, incompressible and inevitable.  The track of the high  maybe within  300  miles of the axis of heaviest snowfall

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but the main problem with December IMO was it was December.  The surface low took a perfect track but there was a ton of mid level warmth that blasted well NW.  I would take my chances on a similar setup in February.  

For some there was little wrong with December 

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

And still hammering a sleet bomb with temps in the 20s DC/Balt and southeast.  But snow is maybe not that far to their west.

Now, this is probably my inexperience, but...I'm perplexed at all these sleet/ice solutions we're seeing despite below freezing temps. I wonder what's going on "under the hood", that is what in the pattern is causing us to have these storms modeled with warmer air aloft?

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, this is probably my inexperience, but...I'm perplexed at all these sleet/ice solutions we're seeing despite below freezing temps. I wonder what's going on "under the hood", that is what in the pattern is causing us to have these storms modeled with warmer air aloft?

Check out the 850 temperatures.  They're above 0 nearly the entire time.  Not sure of any other levels.

ETA:  And south winds at 850 as well.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Wow, very close to a snowstorm on Saturday for my area. Starts as snow and then ice just barely gets far enough NW to get me. Just a small adjustment and 95 and west might have a storm. Would be kinda funny if this ends up being the best snowstorm for the area this winter.

I mean...we are essentially in our prime snowstorm climo period. If the storm of the year is going to happen - might as well be in this next few weeks period. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I mean...we are essentially in our prime snowstorm climo period. If the storm of the year is going to happen - might as well be in this next few weeks period. 

For sure. Just saying that it is floating under the radar. Everyone was focused on the mid-December fail. Then everyone was focused on the early Feb fail. And now everyone is focused on tonight's win/fail, depending on your location, and then storms for next week. Hardly anyone seems focused on Saturday.

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I have been around since wright brothers days.  I am 63 so been following snow a lot longer.  I do not remember any time this active.  Northern polar vortex...active southern jet in a Nina.

Bethlehem Pa in 1977-78 two giant storms after about a week apart. That was cool after many dry years.

But today in North Wales Pa...We have lots of snow and an active week ahead.

I have family...Hoboken to Richmond. Storms are coming.  

Of course after I post this...I am sure the models will all dry up

 

 

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