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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Lunch break. Loving the long range look. IDGAF about ptype problems. The "gauntlet" is very narrow between all ptypes. That will work itself out in due time. Just keep running stuff at us from the southwest with the arctic eyeball wobbling all over the upper midwest. Can't ask for much more really. Well, I mean you can if you want to. I'll wait until something sets the hooks but for now winter wx is upon us for several weeks off and on. That is never bad. Never ever ever bad. 

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26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lunch break. Loving the long range look. IDGAF about ptype problems. The "gauntlet" is very narrow between all ptypes. That will work itself out in due time. Just keep running stuff at us from the southwest with the arctic eyeball wobbling all over the upper midwest. Can't ask for much more really. Well, I mean you can if you want to. I'll wait until something sets the hooks but for now winter wx is upon us for several weeks off and on. That is never bad. Never ever ever bad. 

Thanks for the optimism and trying to mitigate the meltdowns.  The other thread is a total disaster and some of us are trying to find comfort in the next week threats...

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Just want to let you guys know that 2mT verification on the Euro is not good right now for areas south of I-80. It's got a significant warm bias as it struggles with the shallow cold airmasses. Just a reminder when looking at model temps verbatim as it could be too warm within the boundary layer. This will be significant for the weekend potential. 

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8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just want to let you guys know that 2mT verification on the Euro is not good right now for areas south of I-80. It's got a significant warm bias as it struggles with the shallow cold airmasses. Just a reminder when looking at model temps verbatim as it could be too warm within the boundary layer. This will be significant for the weekend potential. 

It also has a significant WRONG bias!

 

Ohhh...:gun_bandana:

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

A 1007 low just kicked a 1040 high in the balls and said get out of my way.

Not saying it’s right, so don’t kill me,  but this trough axis is positive way too fast. Kind of like the December event. This one would have a much better lower level cold airmass so I think euro is scouring out the cold too fast, but we need to work on this look. It took a step though as psu noted so that’s good.

97D42659-19D3-4268-AEAC-69FE0092B3A3.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The Euro gives over 2 inches of ice total from the Weekend into next week with two different storms the whole area would be in shambles, no power for weeks any chance it can turn into a snow storm? 

Only if the Euro is wrong, which hasn't happened for a long, long time..

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I agree with the consensus here, the Euro is not modeling the CAD setup very well for early next week's system, yeah I could see a non-snow event for sure, but the 00z run had like a true warm sector airmass with 50-60 temps over the Mid-Atlantic... ain't happening with that High in place to start the period.

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35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There is no way the storm on the gfs around 132 misses us. No way lol

Hi, you must be new here.  My name is Randy.  Humble brag here, I was one of the founders of this place.  But that's not my claim to fame.  I coined the term Dr. No and have done nothing of note since.   I'm the administrator here.   I'd like to welcome you to the Mid Atlantic forum.  What day this week did you move here?

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hi, you must be new here.  My name is Randy.  Humble brag here, I was one of the founders of this place.  But that's not my claim to fame.  I coined the term Dr. No and have done nothing of note since.   I'm the administrator here.   I'd like to welcome you to the Mid Atlantic forum.  What day this week did you move here?

I’m trying a new tactic. I’m gonna try telling the models what to do and see how that works out.

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