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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

So it's not going to be -9 in DC on Monday morning?

Recall  there was actually quite a bit of decent consensus from the ensembles that decent cold was coming but now it really doesn't look that great, most of the cold is out West

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

Recall  there was actually quite a bit of decent consensus from the ensembles that decent cold was coming but now it really doesn't look that great, most of the cold is out West

It doesn’t matter how much consensus there is. It just almost never happens. You can rely upon that.

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

well since the euro model is sending out paper airplanes to gather data now cause of Covid....i dont think we should worry until we get into NAM range

In 20 years this might be the first time I legitimately laughed at something you said. 

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17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Is anybody realizing that what I said in about November is true. Modeled Arctic air just simply (rarely) cannot make it south and east in a Nina?

The time frame usually 8-10 days. Then it collapses.

There are 2 types of Nina's though.  Ones with a more suppressed pac heat flux and central pac ridge...and ones that have a more poleward heat flux and more blocking, either in the EPO or NAO side.  This year is most definitely the second.  In those nina types historically cold has no problem coming east and we have had some major cold periods in those types.  What typically mutes our snowfall in those nina's is the lack of STJ and so we often have long dry cold periods.  This year has been odd in that the STJ has been much more active then normal and we have had no shortage of systems tracking under us, and we have had a more poleward heat flux and great blocking...but yet we continue to suffer from slight temperature issues storm after storm despite those facts.  

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@WinterWxLuvr one possible bright side to our changing climo though...is if this winter is indicative that perhaps even Nina's will trend more active in the future then perhaps our nina climo might not be as hostile to big snowstorms as it once was...provided we get some blocking.  Honestly this year I think bad luck has a lot more to do with things then pattern.  2 HECS level storms missed DC and Baltimore by a hair geographically.  I don't think there was anything inherently wrong with the pattern that caused that...it was just bad luck.  We will have a few more chances for that luck to even out.  This wouldn't be the first year though this happened...there are other years where the pattern was better then the results due to bad luck and just missing a few storms.  2018 was one of those in DC.  2013 and 2001 are famous for that.  1969.  There are examples in other places where we got the luck and they got screwed like NYC in 1987.  There are also examples of years where we outperformed the pattern like 2014 and 2000 imo.  

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17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Even next week is trending not so great on the GFS.  I'm about to unravel

PARA.... it makes more sense synoptically imo also.  Guidance has been phasing the SS with the NS out to our west all season at that range when in reality they have remained separate with the SS running the polar not the arctic boundary.   No reason to think this next wave will be any different.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WinterWxLuvr one possible bright side to our changing climo though...is if this winter is indicative that perhaps even Nina's will trend more active in the future then perhaps our nina climo might not be as hostile to big snowstorms as it once was...provided we get some blocking.  Honestly this year I think bad luck has a lot more to do with things then pattern.  2 HECS level storms missed DC and Baltimore by a hair geographically.  I don't think there was anything inherently wrong with the pattern that caused that...it was just bad luck.  We will have a few more chances for that luck to even out.  This wouldn't be the first year though this happened...there are other years where the pattern was better then the results due to bad luck and just missing a few storms.  2018 was one of those in DC.  2013 and 2001 are famous for that.  1969.  There are examples in other places where we got the luck and they got screwed like NYC in 1987.  There are also examples of years where we outperformed the pattern like 2014 and 2000 imo.  

I do a lot of bitching and moaning when a storm fails for my area. But it is mostly in jest. I am 4 inches from climo this winter. I have nothing to complain about. It appears to me that the changing climo is effecting the coastal plain much more than our areas. While elevation has always been an advantage for us, I am wondering if it will become an even bigger advantage as we move further out in time. 

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I do a lot of bitching and moaning when a storm fails for my area. But it is mostly in jest. I am 4 inches from climo this winter. I have nothing to complain about. It appears to me that the changing climo is effecting the coastal plain much more than our areas. While elevation has always been an advantage for us, I am wondering if it will become an even bigger advantage as we move further out in time. 

It will and already has

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