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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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When ops runs drop 2 years worth of snow and end up here on Feb 20th, you can feel pretty good saying we're not done for a while. Yea yea, it's the gfs d15+. I know this. But look where it ends up. This would be the beginning of ANOTHER hot streak. Reading between the lines, the 18z gfs loves us SO MUCH that it even shaped the -NAO like a heart. 

gfs_z500a_nhem_65.png

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Didn’t 1996 take FOREVER to advance north or maybe it just felt that way to impatient 17 year old me. 

I was 18 at the time and that was the only storm I was praying would hold off a few more hours.  Trying to beat it home from Killington to FDK.  No luck...I was surprised when I hit snow in Scranton and it was a white knuckle drive the rest of the way.  At least from what I remember, from watching the news before we left, it wasn't supposed to be that far north yet....3-4am iirc.

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33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When ops runs drop 2 years worth of snow and end up here on Feb 20th, you can feel pretty good saying we're not done for a while. Yea yea, it's the gfs d15+. I know this. But look where it ends up. This would be the beginning of ANOTHER hot streak. Reading between the lines, the 18z gfs loves us SO MUCH that it even shaped the -NAO like a heart. 

gfs_z500a_nhem_65.png

Hmmmm. I see the -NAO more like Mickey Mouse....and I do heart Mickey. :)
 

Eta: lots of exciting tracking times ahead! 

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11 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I was 18 at the time and that was the only storm I was praying would hold off a few more hours.  Trying to beat it home from Killington to FDK.  No luck...I was surprised when I hit snow in Scranton and it was a white knuckle drive the rest of the way.  At least from what I remember, from watching the news before we left, it wasn't supposed to be that far north yet....3-4am iirc.

Someone else was coming back from VT in that.  We were on a HS ski trip, think t was Okemo. We ended up having to return to CT a day early.   Hit snow S of Hartford.

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Didn’t 1996 take FOREVER to advance north or maybe it just felt that way to impatient 17 year old me. 

At least in my neck of the woods in swva there was a significant strip of precip out in front of that storm that came through on Friday night. Then the storm really got cranking in Saturday evening.

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

 

Someone else was coming back from VT in that.  We were on a HS ski trip, think t was Okemo. We ended up having to return to CT a day early.   Hit snow S of Hartford.

Funny....I remember looking at the bank thermometer in Rutland on my way out and it was -18f

Out of the 5 of us there, 2 decided to stay and wait to come home.  I was one of the drivers and "hell no...the train is leaving the station."  I am not missing out on witnessing this storm by sitting in a hotel room eating pb&j and pounding cheap beer!

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

When ops runs drop 2 years worth of snow and end up here on Feb 20th, you can feel pretty good saying we're not done for a while. Yea yea, it's the gfs d15+. I know this. But look where it ends up. This would be the beginning of ANOTHER hot streak. Reading between the lines, the 18z gfs loves us SO MUCH that it even shaped the -NAO like a heart. 

gfs_z500a_nhem_65.png

Not just an op though...

0B87ED9F-4893-4DAE-8EED-AA397882F6B3.thumb.png.6125ec5af1399609e800e846a4975449.png

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15 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Hard to fathom a sub 10F high temp in these parts.  It’s been a long time that I can remember. Actually not sure I can remember 

Maybe on the coastal plain, but it was well below that on the Allegheny Plateau about 3-4 years ago.  I was on a trip with family in Canaan Valley and it was subzero highs (I think -6 one day, -8 the other) on a Sat & Sun in Feb.

 

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47 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

Maybe on the coastal plain, but it was well below that on the Allegheny Plateau about 3-4 years ago.  I was on a trip with family in Canaan Valley and it was subzero highs (I think -6 one day, -8 the other) on a Sat & Sun in Feb.

 

Yeah I was up in Canaan during feb of 2015 for that big arctic front.  I actually went out skiing during the passage of the front which was insane, total whiteout, almost couldn’t make it back visibility was so low.  But the next day the high was around 0. 

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FROM LARRY COSGROVE  a long winter still ahead FWIW

 

Even though there are model forecasts that suggest the stratospheric warming event will collapse in the first week of March, lower layer translation of the 10MB features is usually not seen until perhaps three weeks later. Personally, I believe the analog forecast thats says we will have to wait until the first week of April before our current colder pattern breaks down. The analog system scored very well in December and January, and pointed out the recent tendency for pronounced -NAO ridging and European cold. And also showed the split storm track pattern, though not as strong as what actually transpired through the southern and eastern U.S. last month.

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Major ice storm potentially heading our way into Friday. I wouldn’t mind a nice snow thump to ice to dry slot to build a base for the next 2-4 weeks 

18z gfs and 0z euro both show nasty storms in very different ways. Like with the storm we’re about to deal with today, I’d wait until the previous storm has exited the Atlantic coast before taking models so seriously. They are, once again, lost until they’ve got a better grasp of the environment Thursday’s storm will be forming in. 
 

bet 0z tomorrow or 6z Tuesday starts the trend in our direction.  

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1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Major ice storm potentially heading our way into Friday. I wouldn’t mind a nice snow thump to ice to dry slot to build a base for the next 2-4 weeks 

18z gfs and 0z euro both show nasty storms in very different ways. Like with the storm we’re about to deal with today, I’d wait until the previous storm has exited the Atlantic coast before taking models so seriously. They are, once again, lost until they’ve got a better grasp of the environment Thursday’s storm will be forming in. 
 

bet 0z tomorrow or 6z Tuesday starts the trend in our direction.  

Let’s hope so.  CMC has us in shorts and flip flops next Saturday.  That’s quite a change when we were talking temps below 0 recently.  

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Sounds like LWX is a bit gung-ho for mid week per their morning AFD


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure is expected to build from the Midwest and Great Lks
into the area Wednesday and wedge down along the eastern slopes of
the Appalachians setting up a CAD event Wed night into Fri morning.
At the same time, overrunning precip is expected to break out across
the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic late Wed as multiple areas of low
pressure move near the area. Confidence is increasing in a very
impactful winter storm the second half of this week with some
snow and significant icing across the area Wed night into Fri
morning. Ensemble QPF is generally 0.5 to 0.75 inches liquid
equivalent for this event. By 12Z Fri, low pressure that
develops along the coastal front pushes out to sea with precip
ending. After Fri, global models largely diverge on the sfc and
upper level pattern with Euro and Canadian models showing
heights rising over the Northeast and delaying any Arctic
intrusions while the GFS shows significantly lower heights and
allows for a strong Arctic air intrusion to reach the area. Of
course, leaning here with the Euro given typical well-known cold
bias of GFS at extended lead times.

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