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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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44 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

That’s an archambault event imo. Has a really good 50/50 & Hp early on but the trough is linked too far into the northwest and it takes too long to come east. Long way out

Pulling this from the day 3-7 thread but yeah the EPS looks super promising for that timeframe. I guess it depends on where the boundary sets up but with cold out in front it looks pretty favorable for at least a frozen event somewhere in our area. I'll take this precip mean from that lead and let all the events we have lined up distract until that timeframe, but it's hard not to like the signal for that. Snow mean looks pretty :weenie:too, but obviously not worth posting this far out lol

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-precip_72hr_inch-3671200.thumb.png.51199320c1564a6f7dd6ee8948f70bf3.png

 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm waiting for Ji to bring up Dec 2018 (i think that was the year) when we went from a multi-day sw flow firehose on the models that magically morphed into cool/dry. 

2017. I think that died before it even got with d7 range though. This is already like 3-4 days if you count the Wednesday-Thursday wave.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

2017. I think that died before it even got with d7 range though. This is already like 3-4 days if you count the Wednesday-Thursday wave.

Yea man, I'm diggin the mid range period. Def not expecting clean snow. That's for sure. But the next best thing is a snow/sleet/ice/more snow/sleet/ice followed by deep freeze. I've had a glacier fetish ever since Feb 2007

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, I'm diggin the mid range period. Def not expecting clean snow. That's for sure. But the next best thing is a snow/sleet/ice/more snow/sleet/ice followed by deep freeze. I've had a glacier fetish ever since Feb 2007

I’ve paid no attention to the period beyond tomorrow really besides enough to say “looks fun”. Active period, arctic air in play, details TBD. With some not unreasonable luck, I could be near climo snowfall by this time next week. I’m excited.

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

CPC d8/11+ analogs are promising. I like seeing VDay 2007 popping up consistently. Ended up a sleetbomb for many but I'll take a repeat of that setup all day and the day after that. Mixed bag on both d8/11+ but it's not too weenie to focus on the good ones because the upper air pattern is as good as it gets really. 

 

500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

 

 

What were the next 3 weeks like after that Feb 1960 analog?  Asking for a friend. 

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What were the next 3 weeks like after that Feb 1960 analog?  Asking for a friend. 

Tell your friend to get some extra rest and tune up their shovels over the next 5 days. Cuz they gonna need both bigly maybe possibly kinda sorta cuz it's a lock unless it unlocks. 

 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS Probability of 12”

 

Love the map but even if it showed a 163% chance, the chance of 0% is still much greater than 0%. Kinds like casino odds, MA weenies live in a world where odds are perpetually stacked against.

One thing I've noticed since I dropped back in this year is there are some seriously f'd up people who like playing this game and they feel completely normal here. It gets almost too obvious when you take a hiatus. I'm no different. No throwing rocks at glass houses here. But I would NEVER disucss this place or what I post anywhere with anyone for any reason where normal people hang out.

Good thing my wife has known there are some things seriously wrong with me before we even got married. She even joked about snow wx being my secret girlfriend. I told her she's the only one for me forever but to hang on until the 0z euro finishes before I prove it. Which makes complete sense with an imminent threat but I was waiting for hr216. 

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34 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

May want the pick axe too :yikes:

At this late stage in my weenieism, only 6-12" of ice will scratch the itch. Kinda like a cat 5 up the bay with a left turn at point lookout. I'm no spring chicken and time is running out on apocalyptic epicness to hit b4 I'm gone. I'd be honored at this point for winter wx to take me out. Heck, I had to come to grips with the same thing in the colorado backcountry and avalanches. You can mitigate but not remove the risk. So you either accept that every descent could be your last or dont make the first turn. I always said "this could be your final run of your life. Is it worth it?". The answer was always resounding F YEA! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

TooK the gfs over 36hrs to get the snow from Arkansas to DC.   But after that it's an awesome storm  day 11-12.  

 

My favorite non Canadian fantasy storm of the year.   Historic snow and ice storm across a huge area.   Slower moving than 2003 or 1996.

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11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Wow. Yea man. I'd be good if the next 2 weeks play out like that. 

A 3 day overrunning event and then a slow moving Miller A.

Where do I sign?

Pretty much forms a glacier across the US.  Pretty impressive even for an op run.

So much tracking ahead...gfs basically had us on the right side of everything that run.  

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